February 1999 | Kenneth F. Scheve and Matthew J. Slaughter
This paper analyzes the determinants of individual preferences over immigration policy in the United States using individual-level data from the 1992 National Election Studies (NES) survey. It tests the link between individual skill levels and stated immigration-policy preferences. The study finds that less-skilled workers are significantly more likely to prefer limiting immigrant inflows into the United States. This result is robust to various econometric specifications and suggests that individuals believe the U.S. economy absorbs immigrant inflows at least partly by changing wages. These preferences are consistent with a "multi-cone" Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a factor-proportions-analysis labor model. The study also finds no evidence that less-skilled workers in high-immigration communities are especially anti-immigrationist. In fact, the evidence suggests that the skills-preferences correlation may be attenuated in high-immigration communities. These preferences are inconsistent with an area-analysis labor model. The paper also discusses alternative economic models of immigration-policy preferences, including the multi-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model, the factor-proportions-analysis model, and the area-analysis model. The study uses measures of individual economic exposure to immigration that follow closely from economic theory. It finds that skills are a significant determinant of immigration-policy preferences, with less-skilled individuals preferring more-restrictionist policies. The study also finds that the skills-preferences link is not stronger in high-immigration labor markets, and in fact may be attenuated in these areas. The findings are consistent with the factor-proportions-analysis model and a Heckscher-Ohlin multi-cone model, but inconsistent with the area-analysis model. The study concludes that individual preferences over immigration policy are influenced by economic factors, particularly labor-market competition, and that these preferences have implications for how economies absorb immigrants. The findings suggest that immigration politics may be connected to mainstream redistributive politics and that skill levels play an important role in shaping political divisions over international economic policies.This paper analyzes the determinants of individual preferences over immigration policy in the United States using individual-level data from the 1992 National Election Studies (NES) survey. It tests the link between individual skill levels and stated immigration-policy preferences. The study finds that less-skilled workers are significantly more likely to prefer limiting immigrant inflows into the United States. This result is robust to various econometric specifications and suggests that individuals believe the U.S. economy absorbs immigrant inflows at least partly by changing wages. These preferences are consistent with a "multi-cone" Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a factor-proportions-analysis labor model. The study also finds no evidence that less-skilled workers in high-immigration communities are especially anti-immigrationist. In fact, the evidence suggests that the skills-preferences correlation may be attenuated in high-immigration communities. These preferences are inconsistent with an area-analysis labor model. The paper also discusses alternative economic models of immigration-policy preferences, including the multi-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model, the factor-proportions-analysis model, and the area-analysis model. The study uses measures of individual economic exposure to immigration that follow closely from economic theory. It finds that skills are a significant determinant of immigration-policy preferences, with less-skilled individuals preferring more-restrictionist policies. The study also finds that the skills-preferences link is not stronger in high-immigration labor markets, and in fact may be attenuated in these areas. The findings are consistent with the factor-proportions-analysis model and a Heckscher-Ohlin multi-cone model, but inconsistent with the area-analysis model. The study concludes that individual preferences over immigration policy are influenced by economic factors, particularly labor-market competition, and that these preferences have implications for how economies absorb immigrants. The findings suggest that immigration politics may be connected to mainstream redistributive politics and that skill levels play an important role in shaping political divisions over international economic policies.