Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

22 January 2024 | Peter Pfeiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann
The paper "Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios" by Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann examines the implications of a global temperature overshoot above 1.5 °C for regional climate impacts. The authors analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations from two overshoot scenarios (SSP5-34-OS and SSP1-19) to assess the reversibility of temperature and precipitation changes, as well as climate extremes, after peak warming. They find that while temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences exist. For precipitation, the trend is less clear, with many regions experiencing continued drying or wetting trends even after global temperatures begin to cool. The study highlights that even with a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades following peak warming, indicating considerable risks at the regional level. The analysis also explores the mechanisms behind these non-linearities, including changes in sea surface temperatures, aerosol concentrations, and local feedback mechanisms. The findings underscore the need for further research to better understand and quantify the additional climate risks associated with overshooting the 1.5 °C global warming goal.The paper "Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios" by Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann examines the implications of a global temperature overshoot above 1.5 °C for regional climate impacts. The authors analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations from two overshoot scenarios (SSP5-34-OS and SSP1-19) to assess the reversibility of temperature and precipitation changes, as well as climate extremes, after peak warming. They find that while temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences exist. For precipitation, the trend is less clear, with many regions experiencing continued drying or wetting trends even after global temperatures begin to cool. The study highlights that even with a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades following peak warming, indicating considerable risks at the regional level. The analysis also explores the mechanisms behind these non-linearities, including changes in sea surface temperatures, aerosol concentrations, and local feedback mechanisms. The findings underscore the need for further research to better understand and quantify the additional climate risks associated with overshooting the 1.5 °C global warming goal.
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[slides and audio] Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios