Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

22 January 2024 | Peter Pfeiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jana Sillmann
This study investigates the reversibility of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios, where global mean surface air temperature temporarily exceeds a certain limit (e.g., 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) before returning below it. Using climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the research finds that while temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, significant differences exist between land and ocean regions, as well as between latitudes. Precipitation trends, however, are less clear, with some regions continuing to experience drying or wetting trends even after the global mean temperature trend changes. The study highlights that regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades following peak warming, even if the global mean temperature decreases. This implies that overshooting a warming level poses considerable risks on a regional scale. The analysis also identifies that the response of regional climate signals to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations is influenced by factors such as ocean inertia, atmospheric circulation patterns, and aerosol concentrations. The study concludes that the reversibility of regional climate signals is complex and depends on various factors, including the timing and magnitude of the overshoot. The results suggest that additional climate risks may arise from overshooting the 1.5°C global mean temperature goal, emphasizing the need for further research to better understand and assess these risks.This study investigates the reversibility of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios, where global mean surface air temperature temporarily exceeds a certain limit (e.g., 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) before returning below it. Using climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the research finds that while temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, significant differences exist between land and ocean regions, as well as between latitudes. Precipitation trends, however, are less clear, with some regions continuing to experience drying or wetting trends even after the global mean temperature trend changes. The study highlights that regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades following peak warming, even if the global mean temperature decreases. This implies that overshooting a warming level poses considerable risks on a regional scale. The analysis also identifies that the response of regional climate signals to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations is influenced by factors such as ocean inertia, atmospheric circulation patterns, and aerosol concentrations. The study concludes that the reversibility of regional climate signals is complex and depends on various factors, including the timing and magnitude of the overshoot. The results suggest that additional climate risks may arise from overshooting the 1.5°C global mean temperature goal, emphasizing the need for further research to better understand and assess these risks.
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