Local Projections

Local Projections

August 2024 | Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor
Local projections are a method used to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome over time. This approach is widely used in empirical research and has become a standard tool in macroeconomics. Local projections (LPs) involve a sequence of regressions where the outcome variable is regressed on the intervention, conditional on a set of controls that include lags of both the outcome and the intervention. LPs are particularly useful because they are simple, flexible, and can be applied to a wide range of settings. They are also equivalent to vector autoregressions (VARs) under certain conditions, making them a valuable tool for estimating impulse responses. LPs are often used to estimate the dynamic effects of policy interventions, such as fiscal shocks or monetary policy changes. They can be used to estimate the cumulative response of an outcome to an intervention, as well as the multiplier effect, which measures the overall impact of an intervention on the economy. LPs are also useful for analyzing the effects of interventions in the presence of nonlinearities or state dependence, as they do not require the full system of equations to be specified. One of the key advantages of LPs is that they are less sensitive to the choice of lag length compared to VARs. This is because LPs do not impose cross-horizon smoothness restrictions, which can lead to biased estimates in VARs. However, LPs can be less efficient than VARs in some cases, particularly when the data generating process is complex. Despite this, LPs are often preferred because they are more flexible and can be applied to a wider range of settings. In addition to their use in macroeconomics, LPs are also used in applied microeconomics to evaluate the effects of interventions in randomized controlled trials. They can be used to estimate the average treatment effect, as well as the cumulative response and multiplier effect. LPs are also useful for analyzing the effects of interventions in the presence of nonlinearities or state dependence, as they do not require the full system of equations to be specified. Overall, LPs are a powerful and flexible method for estimating the effects of interventions in a wide range of settings. They are particularly useful in macroeconomics for estimating the dynamic effects of policy interventions, as well as in applied microeconomics for evaluating the effects of interventions in randomized controlled trials. Despite their advantages, LPs can be less efficient than VARs in some cases, and they require careful consideration of the choice of lag length and the specification of controls. However, their flexibility and ease of use make them a valuable tool for empirical research.Local projections are a method used to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome over time. This approach is widely used in empirical research and has become a standard tool in macroeconomics. Local projections (LPs) involve a sequence of regressions where the outcome variable is regressed on the intervention, conditional on a set of controls that include lags of both the outcome and the intervention. LPs are particularly useful because they are simple, flexible, and can be applied to a wide range of settings. They are also equivalent to vector autoregressions (VARs) under certain conditions, making them a valuable tool for estimating impulse responses. LPs are often used to estimate the dynamic effects of policy interventions, such as fiscal shocks or monetary policy changes. They can be used to estimate the cumulative response of an outcome to an intervention, as well as the multiplier effect, which measures the overall impact of an intervention on the economy. LPs are also useful for analyzing the effects of interventions in the presence of nonlinearities or state dependence, as they do not require the full system of equations to be specified. One of the key advantages of LPs is that they are less sensitive to the choice of lag length compared to VARs. This is because LPs do not impose cross-horizon smoothness restrictions, which can lead to biased estimates in VARs. However, LPs can be less efficient than VARs in some cases, particularly when the data generating process is complex. Despite this, LPs are often preferred because they are more flexible and can be applied to a wider range of settings. In addition to their use in macroeconomics, LPs are also used in applied microeconomics to evaluate the effects of interventions in randomized controlled trials. They can be used to estimate the average treatment effect, as well as the cumulative response and multiplier effect. LPs are also useful for analyzing the effects of interventions in the presence of nonlinearities or state dependence, as they do not require the full system of equations to be specified. Overall, LPs are a powerful and flexible method for estimating the effects of interventions in a wide range of settings. They are particularly useful in macroeconomics for estimating the dynamic effects of policy interventions, as well as in applied microeconomics for evaluating the effects of interventions in randomized controlled trials. Despite their advantages, LPs can be less efficient than VARs in some cases, and they require careful consideration of the choice of lag length and the specification of controls. However, their flexibility and ease of use make them a valuable tool for empirical research.
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Understanding Local Projections