Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation

Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation

April 2000 | Gary King, Michael Tomz, Jason Wittenberg
Social scientists often fail to fully utilize the information in their statistical results, missing opportunities to present key quantities and express uncertainty. This article introduces a method using statistical simulation to extract overlooked information, interpret, and present results in a reader-friendly manner. The approach converts raw results into expressions that convey precise estimates, uncertainty, and are easy to understand. For example, "An additional year of education would increase your annual income by $1,500 on average, plus or minus about $500." This is clear and informative, unlike jargon-heavy statements that obscure key findings. The method helps researchers in three ways: extracting new quantities from models, assessing uncertainty, and making results accessible. It uses simulation to account for both estimation and fundamental uncertainties. The article explains how to simulate parameters, predict values, expected values, and first differences, and provides software (CLARIFY) to implement these methods. The article also discusses alternative approaches like Bayesian methods, bootstrapping, and the delta method, but simulation is highlighted as a versatile and accurate method. It emphasizes that simulation can handle finite samples and provides precise results, even when analytical methods fall short. The article includes empirical examples, such as a log-log regression model, a logit model, and a time-series cross-sectional model, demonstrating how simulation can enhance interpretation and provide new insights. The results show that simulation can reveal important relationships and uncertainties, improving the clarity and usefulness of statistical findings.Social scientists often fail to fully utilize the information in their statistical results, missing opportunities to present key quantities and express uncertainty. This article introduces a method using statistical simulation to extract overlooked information, interpret, and present results in a reader-friendly manner. The approach converts raw results into expressions that convey precise estimates, uncertainty, and are easy to understand. For example, "An additional year of education would increase your annual income by $1,500 on average, plus or minus about $500." This is clear and informative, unlike jargon-heavy statements that obscure key findings. The method helps researchers in three ways: extracting new quantities from models, assessing uncertainty, and making results accessible. It uses simulation to account for both estimation and fundamental uncertainties. The article explains how to simulate parameters, predict values, expected values, and first differences, and provides software (CLARIFY) to implement these methods. The article also discusses alternative approaches like Bayesian methods, bootstrapping, and the delta method, but simulation is highlighted as a versatile and accurate method. It emphasizes that simulation can handle finite samples and provides precise results, even when analytical methods fall short. The article includes empirical examples, such as a log-log regression model, a logit model, and a time-series cross-sectional model, demonstrating how simulation can enhance interpretation and provide new insights. The results show that simulation can reveal important relationships and uncertainties, improving the clarity and usefulness of statistical findings.
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Understanding Making the Most Of Statistical Analyses%3A Improving Interpretation and Presentation