Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

22 January 2010 | Morris A. Bender, et al.
This article discusses the impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Using a downscaling strategy, the study projects a nearly doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N. The study also highlights the importance of considering factors such as sea-surface temperatures, aerosol and dust forcing, and internal climate variability in understanding hurricane activity. The results suggest that while the overall number of hurricanes may decrease, the frequency of the most intense hurricanes is expected to increase significantly. The study uses a combination of global climate models and operational hurricane prediction models to simulate future hurricane activity. The findings indicate that the projected increase in intense hurricanes may be influenced by anthropogenic factors, although the exact contribution of these factors remains uncertain. The study also notes that the observed increase in hurricane activity since the 1970s may be partly due to changes in observing systems and potential influences of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Overall, the study underscores the need for continued research on hurricane dynamics and climate change impacts.This article discusses the impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Using a downscaling strategy, the study projects a nearly doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N. The study also highlights the importance of considering factors such as sea-surface temperatures, aerosol and dust forcing, and internal climate variability in understanding hurricane activity. The results suggest that while the overall number of hurricanes may decrease, the frequency of the most intense hurricanes is expected to increase significantly. The study uses a combination of global climate models and operational hurricane prediction models to simulate future hurricane activity. The findings indicate that the projected increase in intense hurricanes may be influenced by anthropogenic factors, although the exact contribution of these factors remains uncertain. The study also notes that the observed increase in hurricane activity since the 1970s may be partly due to changes in observing systems and potential influences of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Overall, the study underscores the need for continued research on hurricane dynamics and climate change impacts.
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[slides and audio] Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes