Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century

Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century

2017 | Anne Case and Angus Deaton
The paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton examines the increasing mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. They find that all-cause mortality continued to rise until 2015, with significant increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high school degree or less. The decline in heart disease mortality has slowed and stopped, contributing to the overall increase in all-cause mortality. Educational differences in mortality have widened, with mortality rising for those without a college degree and falling for those with a college degree. This trend is not observed in other rich countries, where mortality rates for low-education groups have continued to decline. The authors evaluate the role of income and find that it cannot fully explain the observed trends. They propose a preliminary explanation involving cumulative disadvantage in labor markets, marriage, child outcomes, and health, triggered by worsening labor market opportunities for low-education whites. They conclude that policies aimed at improving earnings and jobs may take many years to reverse the increasing mortality and morbidity, and that those in midlife today are likely to fare worse in old age compared to those currently over 65.The paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton examines the increasing mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. They find that all-cause mortality continued to rise until 2015, with significant increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high school degree or less. The decline in heart disease mortality has slowed and stopped, contributing to the overall increase in all-cause mortality. Educational differences in mortality have widened, with mortality rising for those without a college degree and falling for those with a college degree. This trend is not observed in other rich countries, where mortality rates for low-education groups have continued to decline. The authors evaluate the role of income and find that it cannot fully explain the observed trends. They propose a preliminary explanation involving cumulative disadvantage in labor markets, marriage, child outcomes, and health, triggered by worsening labor market opportunities for low-education whites. They conclude that policies aimed at improving earnings and jobs may take many years to reverse the increasing mortality and morbidity, and that those in midlife today are likely to fare worse in old age compared to those currently over 65.
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