Negative results are disappearing from most disciplines and countries

Negative results are disappearing from most disciplines and countries

11 September 2011 | Daniele Fanelli
This study examines the trend of positive results in scientific publications from 1990 to 2007 across various disciplines and countries. The analysis, based on over 4,600 papers, reveals a significant increase in the frequency of positive outcomes, with a 22% rise overall. This trend is more pronounced in social and some biomedical disciplines, and the United States publishes fewer positive results than Asian countries but more than European countries. Methodological artifacts cannot explain these patterns, suggesting that the scientific literature is becoming less pioneering and that the objectivity of results is decreasing. The study highlights concerns about the growing competition for funding and citations distorting scientific research, particularly by discouraging high-risk projects and encouraging data fabrication and falsification.This study examines the trend of positive results in scientific publications from 1990 to 2007 across various disciplines and countries. The analysis, based on over 4,600 papers, reveals a significant increase in the frequency of positive outcomes, with a 22% rise overall. This trend is more pronounced in social and some biomedical disciplines, and the United States publishes fewer positive results than Asian countries but more than European countries. Methodological artifacts cannot explain these patterns, suggesting that the scientific literature is becoming less pioneering and that the objectivity of results is decreasing. The study highlights concerns about the growing competition for funding and citations distorting scientific research, particularly by discouraging high-risk projects and encouraging data fabrication and falsification.
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Understanding Negative results are disappearing from most disciplines and countries