Mathers and Loncar (2006) present projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. These projections update earlier estimates from the 1996 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which were based on 1990 data and significantly underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. The new projections use WHO estimates for 2002 and incorporate updated data on HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, and body mass index. The study uses three scenarios: baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic, based on economic and social development trends. In the baseline scenario, the distribution of deaths shifts from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable diseases. The risk of death for children under 5 is projected to fall by nearly 50% between 2002 and 2030. Noncommunicable disease-related deaths are projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, but to 3.7 million in 2030 under the optimistic scenario. Tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 8.3 million in 2030. In 2030, the three leading causes of burden of disease are HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario and the third in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. The projections are based on structural models that relate mortality to socioeconomic variables such as income, human capital, and time. The study uses regression equations to estimate mortality rates for different cause clusters. The results show that mortality trends in poor countries are likely to follow those in higher-income countries. The projections highlight the importance of addressing noncommunicable diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tobacco-related deaths. The study concludes that these projections provide a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable a better understanding of the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries.Mathers and Loncar (2006) present projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. These projections update earlier estimates from the 1996 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which were based on 1990 data and significantly underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. The new projections use WHO estimates for 2002 and incorporate updated data on HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, and body mass index. The study uses three scenarios: baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic, based on economic and social development trends. In the baseline scenario, the distribution of deaths shifts from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable diseases. The risk of death for children under 5 is projected to fall by nearly 50% between 2002 and 2030. Noncommunicable disease-related deaths are projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, but to 3.7 million in 2030 under the optimistic scenario. Tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 8.3 million in 2030. In 2030, the three leading causes of burden of disease are HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario and the third in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. The projections are based on structural models that relate mortality to socioeconomic variables such as income, human capital, and time. The study uses regression equations to estimate mortality rates for different cause clusters. The results show that mortality trends in poor countries are likely to follow those in higher-income countries. The projections highlight the importance of addressing noncommunicable diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tobacco-related deaths. The study concludes that these projections provide a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable a better understanding of the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries.