This paper presents updated projections of global mortality and the burden of disease from 2002 to 2030, addressing the limitations of the 1996 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) projections. The new projections, based on World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for 2002, use simple models and three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—to project future health trends. The data inputs have been updated to include better death registration data and recent projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, and other factors. The projections show a significant shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable diseases. Key findings include a projected 50% reduction in child mortality under the baseline scenario, an increase in noncommunicable disease deaths from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030, and a rise in global HIV/AIDS deaths from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario. The three leading causes of the burden of disease in 2030 are projected to be HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischemic heart disease, with road traffic accidents being the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario. The projections highlight the importance of economic and social development in influencing mortality trends and the need for continued efforts to combat HIV/AIDS and noncommunicable diseases.This paper presents updated projections of global mortality and the burden of disease from 2002 to 2030, addressing the limitations of the 1996 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) projections. The new projections, based on World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for 2002, use simple models and three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—to project future health trends. The data inputs have been updated to include better death registration data and recent projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, and other factors. The projections show a significant shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable diseases. Key findings include a projected 50% reduction in child mortality under the baseline scenario, an increase in noncommunicable disease deaths from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030, and a rise in global HIV/AIDS deaths from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario. The three leading causes of the burden of disease in 2030 are projected to be HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischemic heart disease, with road traffic accidents being the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario. The projections highlight the importance of economic and social development in influencing mortality trends and the need for continued efforts to combat HIV/AIDS and noncommunicable diseases.