New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?

New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?

December 29, 2010 | Arkolakis, Costas, Arnaud Costinot, and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
The paper investigates how new micro-level questions in international trade have affected the understanding of welfare gains from trade. It shows that, despite the development of new trade models and micro-level data, the welfare gains from trade remain largely unchanged. The key finding is that the welfare predictions of a broad class of trade models depend only on two sufficient statistics: the share of domestic expenditure (λ) and an elasticity of imports with respect to variable trade costs (ε). The change in real income from a foreign shock can be computed as λ^(1/ε), where λ is the share of domestic expenditure. This result holds across different trade models, including the Armington model, Ricardian model, and Melitz (2003) model. The paper demonstrates that, under certain macro-level restrictions, the welfare predictions of these models are equivalent, regardless of the specific micro-level details. The results have implications for both empirical and theoretical analysis of trade, showing that aggregate statistics can be used to infer welfare gains without needing detailed micro-level information. The paper also highlights the importance of these restrictions in ensuring the equivalence of welfare predictions across different models.The paper investigates how new micro-level questions in international trade have affected the understanding of welfare gains from trade. It shows that, despite the development of new trade models and micro-level data, the welfare gains from trade remain largely unchanged. The key finding is that the welfare predictions of a broad class of trade models depend only on two sufficient statistics: the share of domestic expenditure (λ) and an elasticity of imports with respect to variable trade costs (ε). The change in real income from a foreign shock can be computed as λ^(1/ε), where λ is the share of domestic expenditure. This result holds across different trade models, including the Armington model, Ricardian model, and Melitz (2003) model. The paper demonstrates that, under certain macro-level restrictions, the welfare predictions of these models are equivalent, regardless of the specific micro-level details. The results have implications for both empirical and theoretical analysis of trade, showing that aggregate statistics can be used to infer welfare gains without needing detailed micro-level information. The paper also highlights the importance of these restrictions in ensuring the equivalence of welfare predictions across different models.
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