The study by Wolfram Schlenker and Michael J. Roberts examines the impact of climate change on crop yields in the United States, focusing on corn, soybeans, and cotton. Using a panel of county-level yields and a fine-scale weather dataset, they find that yields increase with temperature up to critical thresholds (29°C for corn, 30°C for soybeans, and 32°C for cotton) but decline sharply beyond these thresholds. The nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between temperature and yield is consistent across different specifications and controls, suggesting limited historical adaptation to warmer temperatures. Under the slowest warming scenario (B1), area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46% by the end of the century, while under the most rapid warming scenario (A1F1), yields could decline by 63–82%. The study also finds that the nonlinear relationship between yield and temperature is observed in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, indicating limited historical adaptation. Additionally, the estimated impacts are insensitive to the specified growing season and consistent with time separability. The findings highlight the severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change, with potential implications for global food supply and prices.The study by Wolfram Schlenker and Michael J. Roberts examines the impact of climate change on crop yields in the United States, focusing on corn, soybeans, and cotton. Using a panel of county-level yields and a fine-scale weather dataset, they find that yields increase with temperature up to critical thresholds (29°C for corn, 30°C for soybeans, and 32°C for cotton) but decline sharply beyond these thresholds. The nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between temperature and yield is consistent across different specifications and controls, suggesting limited historical adaptation to warmer temperatures. Under the slowest warming scenario (B1), area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46% by the end of the century, while under the most rapid warming scenario (A1F1), yields could decline by 63–82%. The study also finds that the nonlinear relationship between yield and temperature is observed in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, indicating limited historical adaptation. Additionally, the estimated impacts are insensitive to the specified growing season and consistent with time separability. The findings highlight the severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change, with potential implications for global food supply and prices.