Recent studies indicate a regime shift in Antarctic sea ice, marked by increased variability and longer season-to-season memory. The satellite record shows a doubling of summer sea ice standard deviation from 1979–2006 to 2007–2022, accompanied by increased spatial coherence and a changed response to atmospheric forcing. These changes align with theoretical indicators of an abrupt critical transition. The atmosphere is the primary driver of Antarctic sea ice variability, but a linear predictive model shows that sea ice changes cannot be fully explained by atmospheric factors alone. The increased variance and autocorrelation suggest a shift in the sea ice system's response to external drivers. The 2016/17 event, linked to atmospheric anomalies like the Southern Annular Mode and zonal wave 3, was followed by a sustained low sea ice cover. The 2023 winter saw a record low sea ice growth, further supporting the hypothesis of a regime shift. The analysis of sea ice variability and atmospheric indices reveals that changes in winter/spring sea ice are now essential for predicting summer sea ice. This indicates a shift in the sea ice-ocean mixed layer interactions, with increased correlation from winter to summer. The study highlights the importance of understanding these changes for seasonal predictability and ecosystem impacts, as extreme sea ice loss affects marine life and biogeochemistry. The findings suggest that ocean processes may be driving the change in Antarctic sea ice behavior, and further research is needed to confirm the role of anthropogenic climate forcings.Recent studies indicate a regime shift in Antarctic sea ice, marked by increased variability and longer season-to-season memory. The satellite record shows a doubling of summer sea ice standard deviation from 1979–2006 to 2007–2022, accompanied by increased spatial coherence and a changed response to atmospheric forcing. These changes align with theoretical indicators of an abrupt critical transition. The atmosphere is the primary driver of Antarctic sea ice variability, but a linear predictive model shows that sea ice changes cannot be fully explained by atmospheric factors alone. The increased variance and autocorrelation suggest a shift in the sea ice system's response to external drivers. The 2016/17 event, linked to atmospheric anomalies like the Southern Annular Mode and zonal wave 3, was followed by a sustained low sea ice cover. The 2023 winter saw a record low sea ice growth, further supporting the hypothesis of a regime shift. The analysis of sea ice variability and atmospheric indices reveals that changes in winter/spring sea ice are now essential for predicting summer sea ice. This indicates a shift in the sea ice-ocean mixed layer interactions, with increased correlation from winter to summer. The study highlights the importance of understanding these changes for seasonal predictability and ecosystem impacts, as extreme sea ice loss affects marine life and biogeochemistry. The findings suggest that ocean processes may be driving the change in Antarctic sea ice behavior, and further research is needed to confirm the role of anthropogenic climate forcings.