On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity in Project Management

On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity in Project Management

August 2002 | Michael T. Pich • Christoph H. Loch • Arnoud De Meyer
This article develops a model of project management that views a project as a payoff function influenced by the state of the world and a sequence of actions. The model incorporates uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity, which are represented by the adequacy of information about the state of the world and the effects of actions. The authors identify three fundamental project management strategies: instructionism, learning, and selectionism. Instructionism emphasizes preplanned actions based on known information, learning involves adapting policies through experimentation, and selectionism involves pursuing multiple solutions to identify the best outcome. The model suggests that the appropriate strategy depends on the type of uncertainty and the complexity of the project payoff function. The article provides a conceptual framework for project managers to judge the adequacy of available information, choose an appropriate strategy, and set up supporting project infrastructure. The authors also draw parallels between project management and biological survival strategies, highlighting the importance of flexibility and adaptability in dealing with uncertainty and complexity.This article develops a model of project management that views a project as a payoff function influenced by the state of the world and a sequence of actions. The model incorporates uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity, which are represented by the adequacy of information about the state of the world and the effects of actions. The authors identify three fundamental project management strategies: instructionism, learning, and selectionism. Instructionism emphasizes preplanned actions based on known information, learning involves adapting policies through experimentation, and selectionism involves pursuing multiple solutions to identify the best outcome. The model suggests that the appropriate strategy depends on the type of uncertainty and the complexity of the project payoff function. The article provides a conceptual framework for project managers to judge the adequacy of available information, choose an appropriate strategy, and set up supporting project infrastructure. The authors also draw parallels between project management and biological survival strategies, highlighting the importance of flexibility and adaptability in dealing with uncertainty and complexity.
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