PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR DISEASE OUTBREAKS: A REVIEW OF DATA SOURCES AND ACCURACY

PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR DISEASE OUTBREAKS: A REVIEW OF DATA SOURCES AND ACCURACY

08-04-24 | Scholastica Ijeh, Chioma Anthonia Okolo, Jeremiah Olawumi Arowoogun, Adekunle Oyeyemi Adeniyi, & Olufunke Omotayo
Predictive modeling for disease outbreaks is a critical tool in public health, enabling the forecasting of disease spread and informing public health decisions. This review explores the data sources, modeling techniques, accuracy, challenges, and future directions in predictive modeling for disease outbreaks. It emphasizes the importance of diverse data sources, including epidemiological, environmental, social media, and mobility data, in enhancing model accuracy. The review discusses various modeling approaches, from statistical models to advanced machine learning algorithms and network analysis, highlighting their strengths and limitations. It also addresses the challenges of data quality, model complexity, and ethical use of personal data, and outlines promising research avenues such as improving data collection methods, integrating novel data sources like genomic data, and leveraging emerging technologies like AI and IoT to enhance predictive capabilities. The review highlights the dynamic nature of disease transmission, influenced by factors such as human behavior, environmental changes, and pathogen evolution. It underscores the importance of accuracy and validation in predictive models, emphasizing the need for rigorous testing and validation using historical data and real-world events. The review also discusses the challenges in validating predictive models, including data quality and availability, the dynamic nature of diseases, generalizability, and ethical considerations related to personal data use. Future directions in predictive modeling include improving data collection methods, developing more sophisticated modeling techniques, integrating new data sources, and leveraging emerging technologies. The review concludes that predictive modeling is essential for public health, offering the potential to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases. As the field evolves, a collaborative and interdisciplinary approach will be crucial in harnessing these innovations to safeguard public health and improve global outbreak preparedness and response.Predictive modeling for disease outbreaks is a critical tool in public health, enabling the forecasting of disease spread and informing public health decisions. This review explores the data sources, modeling techniques, accuracy, challenges, and future directions in predictive modeling for disease outbreaks. It emphasizes the importance of diverse data sources, including epidemiological, environmental, social media, and mobility data, in enhancing model accuracy. The review discusses various modeling approaches, from statistical models to advanced machine learning algorithms and network analysis, highlighting their strengths and limitations. It also addresses the challenges of data quality, model complexity, and ethical use of personal data, and outlines promising research avenues such as improving data collection methods, integrating novel data sources like genomic data, and leveraging emerging technologies like AI and IoT to enhance predictive capabilities. The review highlights the dynamic nature of disease transmission, influenced by factors such as human behavior, environmental changes, and pathogen evolution. It underscores the importance of accuracy and validation in predictive models, emphasizing the need for rigorous testing and validation using historical data and real-world events. The review also discusses the challenges in validating predictive models, including data quality and availability, the dynamic nature of diseases, generalizability, and ethical considerations related to personal data use. Future directions in predictive modeling include improving data collection methods, developing more sophisticated modeling techniques, integrating new data sources, and leveraging emerging technologies. The review concludes that predictive modeling is essential for public health, offering the potential to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases. As the field evolves, a collaborative and interdisciplinary approach will be crucial in harnessing these innovations to safeguard public health and improve global outbreak preparedness and response.
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