Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

March 23, 2004 | Gregory J. McCabe*, Michael A. Palecki†, and Julio L. Betancourt§
The study examines the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on multidecadal drought frequency in the contiguous United States. Over half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in drought frequency is attributed to these two oscillations, with an additional 22% related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence. Recent droughts, such as those in 1996 and 1999-2002, were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). The long-term predictability of drought frequency may be linked to the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. If the current positive AMO conditions persist, two possible drought scenarios resembling the 1930s and 1950s droughts are explored. The study uses principal component analysis to decompose drought frequency into its primary modes of variability and relates these modes to the PDO and AMO. The results suggest that the PDO and AMO significantly influence drought frequency, and the inclusion of these indices in regression equations is crucial for accurately simulating historical drought patterns.The study examines the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on multidecadal drought frequency in the contiguous United States. Over half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in drought frequency is attributed to these two oscillations, with an additional 22% related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence. Recent droughts, such as those in 1996 and 1999-2002, were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). The long-term predictability of drought frequency may be linked to the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. If the current positive AMO conditions persist, two possible drought scenarios resembling the 1930s and 1950s droughts are explored. The study uses principal component analysis to decompose drought frequency into its primary modes of variability and relates these modes to the PDO and AMO. The results suggest that the PDO and AMO significantly influence drought frequency, and the inclusion of these indices in regression equations is crucial for accurately simulating historical drought patterns.
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