Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

(2024)5:48 | Ioannis Dafnomilis, Michel den Elzen, Detlef van Vuuren
The article explores the climate and energy transition impacts of four strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: implementing current pledges, aligning 2030 emission targets with net-zero targets, broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and strengthening net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The study finds that each step can accelerate the low-carbon transition and reduce the gap between current emission trends and the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C target by about 90% by 2100. The results show that aligning NDCs with net-zero targets, broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and strengthening pledges by bringing them forward can significantly reduce emissions and temperature increases. However, even with these steps, substantial negative emissions are still needed to meet the 1.5 °C target, highlighting the need for deeper mitigation efforts in the first half of the century. The article also discusses the implications for regional and sectoral emissions, energy use, and primary energy consumption, emphasizing the importance of international collaboration and national policy implementation.The article explores the climate and energy transition impacts of four strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: implementing current pledges, aligning 2030 emission targets with net-zero targets, broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and strengthening net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The study finds that each step can accelerate the low-carbon transition and reduce the gap between current emission trends and the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C target by about 90% by 2100. The results show that aligning NDCs with net-zero targets, broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and strengthening pledges by bringing them forward can significantly reduce emissions and temperature increases. However, even with these steps, substantial negative emissions are still needed to meet the 1.5 °C target, highlighting the need for deeper mitigation efforts in the first half of the century. The article also discusses the implications for regional and sectoral emissions, energy use, and primary energy consumption, emphasizing the importance of international collaboration and national policy implementation.
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