PATTERN OF EARLY HUMAN-TO-HUMAN TRANSMISSION OF WUHAN 2019-nCoV

PATTERN OF EARLY HUMAN-TO-HUMAN TRANSMISSION OF WUHAN 2019-nCoV

January 23, 2020 | Julien Riou, MD, PhD and Christian L. Althaus, PhD
The study by Julien Riou and Christian L. Althaus from the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern examines the early human-to-human transmission patterns of the Wuhan 2019-nCoV. The authors performed stochastic simulations to understand the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases had been confirmed in China and other countries. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) was estimated to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained transmission. The transmission characteristics are similar to those of SARS-CoV and the 1918 pandemic influenza. The study emphasizes the importance of heightened screening, surveillance, and control efforts, particularly at airports and travel hubs, to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV. The findings highlight the need for international collaboration and coordination to contain the outbreak.The study by Julien Riou and Christian L. Althaus from the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern examines the early human-to-human transmission patterns of the Wuhan 2019-nCoV. The authors performed stochastic simulations to understand the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases had been confirmed in China and other countries. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) was estimated to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained transmission. The transmission characteristics are similar to those of SARS-CoV and the 1918 pandemic influenza. The study emphasizes the importance of heightened screening, surveillance, and control efforts, particularly at airports and travel hubs, to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV. The findings highlight the need for international collaboration and coordination to contain the outbreak.
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Understanding Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV