Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

September 6, 2011 | vol. 108 | no. 36 | 14769-14774 | Charles D. Koven, Bruno Ringeval, Pierre Friedlingstein, Philippe Ciais, Patricia Cadule, Dmitry Khvorostyanov, Gerhard Krinner, and Charles Tarnocai
The article discusses the potential carbon-climate feedbacks in permafrost regions, which could accelerate global warming. The authors use a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas. They explore the sensitivity of the northern high-latitude CO2 and CH4 balance to these processes. The results show that when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century under a high-warming scenario. The model predicts a significant increase in CO2 emissions due to permafrost thaw and microbial heating, leading to a net carbon loss of 62 ± 7 Pg C by 2100. Additionally, CH4 emissions from high-latitude regions are expected to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41-70 Tg CH4/y. The study highlights the importance of considering permafrost carbon dynamics in climate models to better understand and predict future carbon-climate feedbacks.The article discusses the potential carbon-climate feedbacks in permafrost regions, which could accelerate global warming. The authors use a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas. They explore the sensitivity of the northern high-latitude CO2 and CH4 balance to these processes. The results show that when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century under a high-warming scenario. The model predicts a significant increase in CO2 emissions due to permafrost thaw and microbial heating, leading to a net carbon loss of 62 ± 7 Pg C by 2100. Additionally, CH4 emissions from high-latitude regions are expected to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41-70 Tg CH4/y. The study highlights the importance of considering permafrost carbon dynamics in climate models to better understand and predict future carbon-climate feedbacks.
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