Plant phenology and global climate change: current progresses and challenges

Plant phenology and global climate change: current progresses and challenges

2019 | Shilong Piao, Qiang Liu, Anping Chen, Ivan A Janssens, Yongshuo Fu, Junhu Dai, Lingli Liu, Xu Lian, Miaogen Shen, Xiaolin Zhu
This article reviews the current progress and challenges in understanding plant phenology and its interactions with global climate change. Plant phenology, the annual sequence of plant developmental stages, is crucial for ecosystem functioning and services. The rapid climate change has led to a revival of interest in studying and modeling plant phenology responses to warming trends and their consequences for ecosystems. Recent advancements in ground- and remote-sensing-based phenology data acquisition have significantly supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, though these trends have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. The mechanisms underlying these responses remain limited, and the interactions between multiple drivers complicate modeling and prediction. Changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and climate feedbacks, but quantifying these impacts remains challenging. Future research should focus on improving the understanding of tropical plant phenology, enhancing process-based phenology modeling, and scaling phenology from species to landscape levels. The article also discusses the methodological advances in plant phenology research, including ground-based and remote-sensing observations, multi-source data fusion, manipulative experiments, and phenology modeling approaches. It highlights the evidence for and patterns in recent plant phenological changes, driven by temperature, photoperiod, nutrient and water availability, and the interconnections among different phenological events. Finally, it explores the ecological implications and climatic feedbacks of observed plant phenological changes.This article reviews the current progress and challenges in understanding plant phenology and its interactions with global climate change. Plant phenology, the annual sequence of plant developmental stages, is crucial for ecosystem functioning and services. The rapid climate change has led to a revival of interest in studying and modeling plant phenology responses to warming trends and their consequences for ecosystems. Recent advancements in ground- and remote-sensing-based phenology data acquisition have significantly supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, though these trends have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. The mechanisms underlying these responses remain limited, and the interactions between multiple drivers complicate modeling and prediction. Changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and climate feedbacks, but quantifying these impacts remains challenging. Future research should focus on improving the understanding of tropical plant phenology, enhancing process-based phenology modeling, and scaling phenology from species to landscape levels. The article also discusses the methodological advances in plant phenology research, including ground-based and remote-sensing observations, multi-source data fusion, manipulative experiments, and phenology modeling approaches. It highlights the evidence for and patterns in recent plant phenological changes, driven by temperature, photoperiod, nutrient and water availability, and the interconnections among different phenological events. Finally, it explores the ecological implications and climatic feedbacks of observed plant phenological changes.
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