Polarisation of Climate and Environmental Attitudes in the United States, 1973-2022

Polarisation of Climate and Environmental Attitudes in the United States, 1973-2022

2024 | E. Keith Smith, M. Julia Bognar, Adam P. Mayer
The study examines the polarization of environmental and climate change attitudes in the United States from 1973 to 2022, focusing on whether this polarization is symmetrical or asymmetric. Using four unique sets of historical survey data, the researchers analyze seven distinct measures of citizen attitudes, including support for environmental spending, confidence in the scientific community, climate change worry, beliefs about when climate change will happen, and perceptions of climate change's seriousness. The findings indicate that contemporary attitudes are symmetrically polarized, with Democrats showing higher levels of concern and Republicans showing lower levels, both equidistant from the median. However, historical trends show different patterns: Republicans have become less pro-environmental since the early 1990s, while Democrats have shown a recent increase in pro-environmental attitudes, particularly since the mid-2010s. These shifts suggest that while Republicans have become more polarized against environmental policies, Democrats are increasingly aligning with more pro-environmental stances. The study also explores potential factors driving these changes, such as scientific knowledge transfer, political coalitions, elite cues, and demographic shifts. The findings have implications for collective action and coalition-building in addressing environmental issues, highlighting the need for diverse coalitions to implement meaningful climate policies.The study examines the polarization of environmental and climate change attitudes in the United States from 1973 to 2022, focusing on whether this polarization is symmetrical or asymmetric. Using four unique sets of historical survey data, the researchers analyze seven distinct measures of citizen attitudes, including support for environmental spending, confidence in the scientific community, climate change worry, beliefs about when climate change will happen, and perceptions of climate change's seriousness. The findings indicate that contemporary attitudes are symmetrically polarized, with Democrats showing higher levels of concern and Republicans showing lower levels, both equidistant from the median. However, historical trends show different patterns: Republicans have become less pro-environmental since the early 1990s, while Democrats have shown a recent increase in pro-environmental attitudes, particularly since the mid-2010s. These shifts suggest that while Republicans have become more polarized against environmental policies, Democrats are increasingly aligning with more pro-environmental stances. The study also explores potential factors driving these changes, such as scientific knowledge transfer, political coalitions, elite cues, and demographic shifts. The findings have implications for collective action and coalition-building in addressing environmental issues, highlighting the need for diverse coalitions to implement meaningful climate policies.
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