The chapter reviews three books related to political economy and conflict studies: 1. **"Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka**: - The book presents a mathematical model that claims to enable accurate predictions of political events and policies. - The model is based on expected-utility theory and assumes that policy choices are outcomes of conflicts between groups led by rational leaders. - It predicts that despite Chinese efforts to maintain Hong Kong's special status, domestic political pressures will lead to significant policy changes. - The model is praised for its simplicity, flexibility, and accuracy in predicting historical events, but its limitations are also noted, particularly in handling complex elements like log rolling and tradeoffs. 2. **"Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation: Prisoner's Dilemma and Newcomb's Problem" edited by Richmond Campbell and Lanning Sowden**: - The book explores philosophical questions related to decision theory, ethics, and the social contract. - It includes reprints of classic works and original papers, focusing on the Prisoner's Dilemma and Newcomb's Problem. - The content is organized into sections on one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma, Newcomb's Problem, their connection, and iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. - The book raises important issues but may be of limited interest to political scientists who use these models for formal analysis. 3. **"Modeling Metropolitan Economies for Forecasting and Policy Analysis" by Matthew P. Drennan**: - Drennan uses annual data from 1958 to 1978 to develop econometric models for the New York-Northeastern New Jersey Standard Consolidated Area and New York City. - The models estimate income equations for various economic indicators. - The book provides a detailed analysis of metropolitan economies and their policy implications. Overall, the chapter highlights the contributions and limitations of each book in the field of political economy and conflict studies.The chapter reviews three books related to political economy and conflict studies: 1. **"Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka**: - The book presents a mathematical model that claims to enable accurate predictions of political events and policies. - The model is based on expected-utility theory and assumes that policy choices are outcomes of conflicts between groups led by rational leaders. - It predicts that despite Chinese efforts to maintain Hong Kong's special status, domestic political pressures will lead to significant policy changes. - The model is praised for its simplicity, flexibility, and accuracy in predicting historical events, but its limitations are also noted, particularly in handling complex elements like log rolling and tradeoffs. 2. **"Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation: Prisoner's Dilemma and Newcomb's Problem" edited by Richmond Campbell and Lanning Sowden**: - The book explores philosophical questions related to decision theory, ethics, and the social contract. - It includes reprints of classic works and original papers, focusing on the Prisoner's Dilemma and Newcomb's Problem. - The content is organized into sections on one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma, Newcomb's Problem, their connection, and iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. - The book raises important issues but may be of limited interest to political scientists who use these models for formal analysis. 3. **"Modeling Metropolitan Economies for Forecasting and Policy Analysis" by Matthew P. Drennan**: - Drennan uses annual data from 1958 to 1978 to develop econometric models for the New York-Northeastern New Jersey Standard Consolidated Area and New York City. - The models estimate income equations for various economic indicators. - The book provides a detailed analysis of metropolitan economies and their policy implications. Overall, the chapter highlights the contributions and limitations of each book in the field of political economy and conflict studies.