The study predicts the potential global distribution of the papaya mealybug, *Paracoccus marginatus*, under current and future climatic conditions using the MaxEnt model. The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for *P. marginatus* are primarily located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The min temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was found to be the most influential factor, contributing 46.8% to the distribution model. Under four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the 2050s and 2070s, the total suitable areas will change very little. However, the area of suitable areas is expected to increase in the 2070s under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. The study provides a reference framework for future control and management of *P. marginatus* and other invasive species.The study predicts the potential global distribution of the papaya mealybug, *Paracoccus marginatus*, under current and future climatic conditions using the MaxEnt model. The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for *P. marginatus* are primarily located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The min temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was found to be the most influential factor, contributing 46.8% to the distribution model. Under four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the 2050s and 2070s, the total suitable areas will change very little. However, the area of suitable areas is expected to increase in the 2070s under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. The study provides a reference framework for future control and management of *P. marginatus* and other invasive species.