The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest native to Mexico and Central America, now found in over 50 countries, threatening agriculture and forestry. Using MaxEnt, this study predicted its potential global distribution under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that highly suitable areas are mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, Central Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585), suitable areas changed little, but the 2070s saw an increase in suitable areas. The most important climate variable was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), contributing 46.8% to the model. The study provides a framework for future control and management of the pest. The model's performance was strong, with an AUC of 0.949 and TSS of 0.820. The results highlight the need for monitoring and control in high-risk areas, especially under future climate scenarios. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering climate change in pest management strategies.The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest native to Mexico and Central America, now found in over 50 countries, threatening agriculture and forestry. Using MaxEnt, this study predicted its potential global distribution under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that highly suitable areas are mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, Central Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585), suitable areas changed little, but the 2070s saw an increase in suitable areas. The most important climate variable was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), contributing 46.8% to the model. The study provides a framework for future control and management of the pest. The model's performance was strong, with an AUC of 0.949 and TSS of 0.820. The results highlight the need for monitoring and control in high-risk areas, especially under future climate scenarios. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering climate change in pest management strategies.