13 JANUARY 1994 | Cynthia Rosenzweig & Martin L. Parry
The study by Cynthia Rosenzweig and Martin L. Parry assesses the potential impact of climate change on global food supply. Despite a small decrease in global crop production, developing countries are expected to bear the brunt of the problem. The analysis, which combines data from individual studies and uses a world food trade model, reveals significant disparities in agricultural vulnerability between developed and developing countries. Climate change scenarios, including increased CO2 levels, result in negative yield changes in low latitudes (where many developing countries are located) and positive changes in middle and high latitudes (where developed countries are located). Farm-level adaptations, such as changes in planting dates, irrigation, and fertilizer use, are tested but do not fully mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The study concludes that climate change will increase the disparities in cereal production between developed and developing countries, with developing countries facing greater challenges due to limited adaptive capacity.The study by Cynthia Rosenzweig and Martin L. Parry assesses the potential impact of climate change on global food supply. Despite a small decrease in global crop production, developing countries are expected to bear the brunt of the problem. The analysis, which combines data from individual studies and uses a world food trade model, reveals significant disparities in agricultural vulnerability between developed and developing countries. Climate change scenarios, including increased CO2 levels, result in negative yield changes in low latitudes (where many developing countries are located) and positive changes in middle and high latitudes (where developed countries are located). Farm-level adaptations, such as changes in planting dates, irrigation, and fertilizer use, are tested but do not fully mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The study concludes that climate change will increase the disparities in cereal production between developed and developing countries, with developing countries facing greater challenges due to limited adaptive capacity.