Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation

Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation

268 | C. F. Ropelewski and M. S. Halpert
The study examines the relationship between precipitation and the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for 19 regions of the globe, focusing on areas with documented low SO index-precipitation relationships. The analysis reveals that 15 of these regions also exhibit characteristic precipitation anomalies during the high SO index phase, with the precipitation anomalies being opposite in sign to those observed during the low SO index phase. These relationships are consistent for over 70% of the high SO index years and are statistically significant. The high SO index is associated with enhanced precipitation in monsoons of India and eastern Australia, rain basins in northeastern South America, central and eastern Africa, and regions in the central Pacific, Minicoy-Sri Lanka, eastern equatorial Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, northern Mexico, and southeastern South America. The seasons showing high SO index-precipitation relationships are nearly identical to those associated with the low SO index in 13 of the 15 regions. The study suggests that the sign of precipitation anomalies in these regions is linearly related to the phase of the SO, and that precipitation may be classified and predicted based on the extreme SO phase for over 40% of the years. The high SO index precipitation patterns are consistent with surface pressure and wind fields observed during the high SO index phase, and the largest SST and surface circulation anomalies are strongest in the Indian Ocean and central and western Pacific.The study examines the relationship between precipitation and the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for 19 regions of the globe, focusing on areas with documented low SO index-precipitation relationships. The analysis reveals that 15 of these regions also exhibit characteristic precipitation anomalies during the high SO index phase, with the precipitation anomalies being opposite in sign to those observed during the low SO index phase. These relationships are consistent for over 70% of the high SO index years and are statistically significant. The high SO index is associated with enhanced precipitation in monsoons of India and eastern Australia, rain basins in northeastern South America, central and eastern Africa, and regions in the central Pacific, Minicoy-Sri Lanka, eastern equatorial Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, northern Mexico, and southeastern South America. The seasons showing high SO index-precipitation relationships are nearly identical to those associated with the low SO index in 13 of the 15 regions. The study suggests that the sign of precipitation anomalies in these regions is linearly related to the phase of the SO, and that precipitation may be classified and predicted based on the extreme SO phase for over 40% of the years. The high SO index precipitation patterns are consistent with surface pressure and wind fields observed during the high SO index phase, and the largest SST and surface circulation anomalies are strongest in the Indian Ocean and central and western Pacific.
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[slides and audio] Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation