Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation

Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation

March 1989 | C. F. Ropelewski and M. S. Halpert
This study examines precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for 19 global regions. It reveals that 15 of these regions show characteristic precipitation anomalies during the high index phase, with precipitation anomalies opposite in sign to those observed during the low index phase. These relationships are statistically significant and consistent for over 70% of high index years. The high index phase is associated with enhanced precipitation in the monsoons of India and northern Australia, as well as rainy seasons in northeastern South America and southeastern Africa. Conversely, high index years show less than median precipitation in the central Pacific, Minicoy-Sri Lanka, eastern equatorial Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, northern Mexico, and southeastern South America. The seasons showing high index-precipitation relationships are similar to those associated with the low index phase in 13 of the 15 regions. The study suggests that precipitation anomalies are linearly related to the phase of the SO. With 25 low index and 19 high index years in the 109-year analysis period, these results suggest that over 40% of years may be classified or predicted based on the extreme SO phase. The study also finds that precipitation patterns during the high index phase are consistent with surface pressure and wind fields in other studies, and with COADS-based composites of surface winds and SST. The high index phase is associated with a large area of negative SST anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific, which is a mirror image of the mature phase of ENSO. The study concludes that precipitation anomalies during the high index phase are opposite in sign to those during the low index phase in many regions, and that these relationships are statistically significant. The study also finds that precipitation patterns during the high index phase are consistent with global circulation anomalies, and that these patterns are different for the high and low extremes of the SO in certain regions. The study suggests that the sign of the precipitation anomaly for these regions is linearly related to the phase of the SO.This study examines precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for 19 global regions. It reveals that 15 of these regions show characteristic precipitation anomalies during the high index phase, with precipitation anomalies opposite in sign to those observed during the low index phase. These relationships are statistically significant and consistent for over 70% of high index years. The high index phase is associated with enhanced precipitation in the monsoons of India and northern Australia, as well as rainy seasons in northeastern South America and southeastern Africa. Conversely, high index years show less than median precipitation in the central Pacific, Minicoy-Sri Lanka, eastern equatorial Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, northern Mexico, and southeastern South America. The seasons showing high index-precipitation relationships are similar to those associated with the low index phase in 13 of the 15 regions. The study suggests that precipitation anomalies are linearly related to the phase of the SO. With 25 low index and 19 high index years in the 109-year analysis period, these results suggest that over 40% of years may be classified or predicted based on the extreme SO phase. The study also finds that precipitation patterns during the high index phase are consistent with surface pressure and wind fields in other studies, and with COADS-based composites of surface winds and SST. The high index phase is associated with a large area of negative SST anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific, which is a mirror image of the mature phase of ENSO. The study concludes that precipitation anomalies during the high index phase are opposite in sign to those during the low index phase in many regions, and that these relationships are statistically significant. The study also finds that precipitation patterns during the high index phase are consistent with global circulation anomalies, and that these patterns are different for the high and low extremes of the SO in certain regions. The study suggests that the sign of the precipitation anomaly for these regions is linearly related to the phase of the SO.
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[slides and audio] Precipitation Patterns Associated with the High Index Phase of the Southern Oscillation