Predicting extinction risk in declining species

Predicting extinction risk in declining species

2000 | Andy Purvis1*, John L. Gittleman2, Guy Cowlishaw3 and Georgina M. Mace3
The article "Predicting Extinction Risk in Declining Species" by Andy Purvis, John L. Gittleman, Guy Cowlishaw, and Georgina M. Mace explores the biological attributes that predispose species to extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, the authors analyze contemporary carnivores and primates to identify significant factors associated with high extinction risk. Key findings include: 1. **High Trophic Level**: Species at higher trophic levels are more vulnerable to the cumulative effects of disturbances to lower trophic levels. 2. **Low Population Density**: Small populations are more likely to go extinct due to demographic stochasticity, local catastrophes, and inbreeding. 3. **Slow Life History**: Species with slow life histories, such as small litters, late sexual maturity, and long gestation periods, are less able to compensate for increased mortality. 4. **Small Geographical Range**: Species with small geographical ranges are more at risk of extinction, even if they have large populations. 5. **Diurnal Activity**: Diurnal species are more vulnerable due to their larger body size, sociality, and higher predation rates. The study also highlights the importance of considering extrinsic anthropogenic factors, such as habitat loss and over-exploitation, which can overwhelm a species' intrinsic resistance to extinction. The authors conclude that understanding these biological and anthropogenic factors is crucial for effective conservation efforts.The article "Predicting Extinction Risk in Declining Species" by Andy Purvis, John L. Gittleman, Guy Cowlishaw, and Georgina M. Mace explores the biological attributes that predispose species to extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, the authors analyze contemporary carnivores and primates to identify significant factors associated with high extinction risk. Key findings include: 1. **High Trophic Level**: Species at higher trophic levels are more vulnerable to the cumulative effects of disturbances to lower trophic levels. 2. **Low Population Density**: Small populations are more likely to go extinct due to demographic stochasticity, local catastrophes, and inbreeding. 3. **Slow Life History**: Species with slow life histories, such as small litters, late sexual maturity, and long gestation periods, are less able to compensate for increased mortality. 4. **Small Geographical Range**: Species with small geographical ranges are more at risk of extinction, even if they have large populations. 5. **Diurnal Activity**: Diurnal species are more vulnerable due to their larger body size, sociality, and higher predation rates. The study also highlights the importance of considering extrinsic anthropogenic factors, such as habitat loss and over-exploitation, which can overwhelm a species' intrinsic resistance to extinction. The authors conclude that understanding these biological and anthropogenic factors is crucial for effective conservation efforts.
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