Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2024

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2024

2024 | Kyu-Won Jung, Mee Joo Kang, Eun Hye Park, E Hwa Yun, Hye-Jin Kim, Jeong-Eun Kim, Hyun-Joo Kong, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo
This study projects cancer incidence and mortality for 2024 in Korea, aiming to estimate the current cancer burden. Data from 1999 to 2021 were used for incidence, and from 1993 to 2022 for mortality. A linear regression model was applied to predict age-specific rates, and joinpoint regression was used to identify significant trend changes. The projections indicate that 292,221 new cancer cases and 83,770 cancer deaths are expected in 2024. The most common cancer sites are thyroid, colon and rectum, lung, breast, and stomach, which together account for 55.7% of the overall burden. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers. The study highlights the increasing incidence rates for female breast and prostate cancers and emphasizes the importance of these estimates for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs. However, the results should be interpreted with caution due to potential biases from the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in diagnostic criteria.This study projects cancer incidence and mortality for 2024 in Korea, aiming to estimate the current cancer burden. Data from 1999 to 2021 were used for incidence, and from 1993 to 2022 for mortality. A linear regression model was applied to predict age-specific rates, and joinpoint regression was used to identify significant trend changes. The projections indicate that 292,221 new cancer cases and 83,770 cancer deaths are expected in 2024. The most common cancer sites are thyroid, colon and rectum, lung, breast, and stomach, which together account for 55.7% of the overall burden. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers. The study highlights the increasing incidence rates for female breast and prostate cancers and emphasizes the importance of these estimates for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs. However, the results should be interpreted with caution due to potential biases from the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in diagnostic criteria.
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