This paper argues that the price level remains determinate even in cases where the central bank pegs interest rates or operates in a "free banking" regime, which are typically thought to lead to indeterminate price levels. The author proposes a "fiscal theory of the price level," which suggests that the equilibrium price level is determined by the level that makes the real value of government liabilities equal to the present value of expected future government budget surpluses. This theory applies to exogenous-money regimes and challenges the conventional quantity-theoretic view that monetary policy must control the money supply to determine the price level.
The paper highlights that the conventional quantity-theoretic approach assumes a sharp distinction between monetary and non-monetary assets, which is often criticized for being outdated in the context of modern financial innovation and deregulation. The author argues that these conventional views are incorrect and that fiscal policy plays a crucial role in determining the price level. The fiscal theory of the price level shows that the equilibrium price level can be uniquely determined even when the money supply is endogenous, as long as fiscal policy is considered.
The paper presents a representative household model to illustrate how fiscal policy affects the price level. It shows that changes in government budget deficits or fiscal policy can influence the price level, even when the money supply is not directly controlled. The author also demonstrates that the price level can be uniquely determined in various policy regimes, including those with exogenous money supply paths, even when the money supply is allowed to vary freely in response to changes in money demand.
The paper concludes that the fiscal theory of the price level provides a useful framework for understanding price level determination regardless of the nature of monetary policy. It challenges the conventional quantity-theoretic view that monetary policy must control the money supply to determine the price level and shows that fiscal policy plays a crucial role in this process. The author argues that the price level can be uniquely determined even in the case of endogenous money supply regimes, as long as fiscal policy is considered.This paper argues that the price level remains determinate even in cases where the central bank pegs interest rates or operates in a "free banking" regime, which are typically thought to lead to indeterminate price levels. The author proposes a "fiscal theory of the price level," which suggests that the equilibrium price level is determined by the level that makes the real value of government liabilities equal to the present value of expected future government budget surpluses. This theory applies to exogenous-money regimes and challenges the conventional quantity-theoretic view that monetary policy must control the money supply to determine the price level.
The paper highlights that the conventional quantity-theoretic approach assumes a sharp distinction between monetary and non-monetary assets, which is often criticized for being outdated in the context of modern financial innovation and deregulation. The author argues that these conventional views are incorrect and that fiscal policy plays a crucial role in determining the price level. The fiscal theory of the price level shows that the equilibrium price level can be uniquely determined even when the money supply is endogenous, as long as fiscal policy is considered.
The paper presents a representative household model to illustrate how fiscal policy affects the price level. It shows that changes in government budget deficits or fiscal policy can influence the price level, even when the money supply is not directly controlled. The author also demonstrates that the price level can be uniquely determined in various policy regimes, including those with exogenous money supply paths, even when the money supply is allowed to vary freely in response to changes in money demand.
The paper concludes that the fiscal theory of the price level provides a useful framework for understanding price level determination regardless of the nature of monetary policy. It challenges the conventional quantity-theoretic view that monetary policy must control the money supply to determine the price level and shows that fiscal policy plays a crucial role in this process. The author argues that the price level can be uniquely determined even in the case of endogenous money supply regimes, as long as fiscal policy is considered.