Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic

February 16, 2024 | David I. Auerbach, PhD; Peter I. Buerhaus, PhD, RN; Karen Donelan, ScD, ECM; Douglas O. Staiger, PhD
The study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US registered nurse (RN) workforce and projects future growth. During the pandemic, the RN workforce decreased by over 100,000 in 2021, but recovered in 2022 and 2023, with the total number of full-time equivalent (FTE) RNs reaching 3.35 million in 2023, a 6% increase from 2019 levels. Using data through 2022, the study projects that the RN workforce will grow to 4.56 million FTEs by 2035, close to pre-pandemic forecasts. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years, who are projected to make up nearly half of the RN workforce in 2035, up from 38% in 2022. The study concludes that the earlier drop in RN employment during the first two years of the pandemic was likely temporary, and future workforce challenges are less likely to involve an overall shortage than during the pandemic. The findings suggest that the nursing workforce will continue to grow, with a shift toward RNs aged 35 to 49 years. The study also highlights the importance of monitoring changes in the RN workforce and addressing potential challenges such as nursing education and clinical preparedness. The study uses data from the Current Population Survey and other sources to project future workforce trends. The results indicate that the RN workforce will grow significantly by 2035, with a strong and sustained growth of RNs in their late 20s and 30s. The study also notes that the pandemic may have led to a shift in where RNs work, with growth occurring primarily in nonhospital settings. The study acknowledges uncertainties, including changes in nursing education and potential disruptions in the workforce. Overall, the study suggests that the pandemic's impact on the RN workforce has been largely temporary, and the future growth of the RN workforce is expected to be robust.The study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US registered nurse (RN) workforce and projects future growth. During the pandemic, the RN workforce decreased by over 100,000 in 2021, but recovered in 2022 and 2023, with the total number of full-time equivalent (FTE) RNs reaching 3.35 million in 2023, a 6% increase from 2019 levels. Using data through 2022, the study projects that the RN workforce will grow to 4.56 million FTEs by 2035, close to pre-pandemic forecasts. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years, who are projected to make up nearly half of the RN workforce in 2035, up from 38% in 2022. The study concludes that the earlier drop in RN employment during the first two years of the pandemic was likely temporary, and future workforce challenges are less likely to involve an overall shortage than during the pandemic. The findings suggest that the nursing workforce will continue to grow, with a shift toward RNs aged 35 to 49 years. The study also highlights the importance of monitoring changes in the RN workforce and addressing potential challenges such as nursing education and clinical preparedness. The study uses data from the Current Population Survey and other sources to project future workforce trends. The results indicate that the RN workforce will grow significantly by 2035, with a strong and sustained growth of RNs in their late 20s and 30s. The study also notes that the pandemic may have led to a shift in where RNs work, with growth occurring primarily in nonhospital settings. The study acknowledges uncertainties, including changes in nursing education and potential disruptions in the workforce. Overall, the study suggests that the pandemic's impact on the RN workforce has been largely temporary, and the future growth of the RN workforce is expected to be robust.
Reach us at info@study.space
Understanding Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic