Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic

February 16, 2024 | David I. Auerbach, PhD; Peter I. Buerhaus, PhD, RN; Karen Donelan, ScD, EcM; Douglas O. Staiger, PhD
The study examines the trends and projections of the registered nurse (RN) workforce in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic. The US RN workforce experienced a significant decline of over 100,000 in 2021, the largest single-year drop in four decades. However, the workforce recovered in 2022 and 2023, with the total number of full-time equivalent (FTE) RNs reaching 3.37 million by 2023, 6% higher than in 2019. Using data from the Current Population Survey and retrospective cohort analysis, the study forecasts that the RN workforce will grow to 4.56 million FTEs by 2035, driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years. The forecast suggests that the pandemic's impact on the RN workforce is likely transitory, and the future growth is expected to be similar to pre-pandemic projections. The study highlights the importance of continued monitoring of the RN workforce to address potential future challenges.The study examines the trends and projections of the registered nurse (RN) workforce in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic. The US RN workforce experienced a significant decline of over 100,000 in 2021, the largest single-year drop in four decades. However, the workforce recovered in 2022 and 2023, with the total number of full-time equivalent (FTE) RNs reaching 3.37 million by 2023, 6% higher than in 2019. Using data from the Current Population Survey and retrospective cohort analysis, the study forecasts that the RN workforce will grow to 4.56 million FTEs by 2035, driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years. The forecast suggests that the pandemic's impact on the RN workforce is likely transitory, and the future growth is expected to be similar to pre-pandemic projections. The study highlights the importance of continued monitoring of the RN workforce to address potential future challenges.
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Understanding Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic