The paper projects the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period, focusing on factors such as seasonality, immunity duration, and cross-immunity. Using data from the United States, the authors measured these factors' impact on the transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. They built a mathematical model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission through 2025, predicting recurrent wintertime outbreaks after an initial pandemic wave. Key findings include: 1. **Seasonal Variation**: SARS-CoV-2 transmission is likely to follow a seasonal pattern, similar to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, with peaks in winter. 2. **Immunity Duration**: Short-term immunity (40 weeks) favors annual outbreaks, while longer-term immunity (two years) leads to biennial or sporadic outbreaks. 3. **Cross-Immunity**: Cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and other betacoronaviruses can influence the dynamics, with higher cross-immunity leading to more effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2. 4. **Establishment Timing**: The timing of SARS-CoV-2 establishment significantly affects its future dynamics, with early establishment leading to longer-lasting outbreaks. 5. **Model Validation**: The model was validated using historical data and showed good fit to incidence and effective reproduction numbers. The authors emphasize the need for longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity and maintain surveillance to anticipate potential resurgence.The paper projects the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period, focusing on factors such as seasonality, immunity duration, and cross-immunity. Using data from the United States, the authors measured these factors' impact on the transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. They built a mathematical model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission through 2025, predicting recurrent wintertime outbreaks after an initial pandemic wave. Key findings include: 1. **Seasonal Variation**: SARS-CoV-2 transmission is likely to follow a seasonal pattern, similar to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, with peaks in winter. 2. **Immunity Duration**: Short-term immunity (40 weeks) favors annual outbreaks, while longer-term immunity (two years) leads to biennial or sporadic outbreaks. 3. **Cross-Immunity**: Cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and other betacoronaviruses can influence the dynamics, with higher cross-immunity leading to more effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2. 4. **Establishment Timing**: The timing of SARS-CoV-2 establishment significantly affects its future dynamics, with early establishment leading to longer-lasting outbreaks. 5. **Model Validation**: The model was validated using historical data and showed good fit to incidence and effective reproduction numbers. The authors emphasize the need for longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity and maintain surveillance to anticipate potential resurgence.