New projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030

New projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030

| Colin D. Mathers, Dejan Loncar
The technical appendix provides a detailed methodology for projecting global mortality and disease burden from 2002 to 2030, based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The projections use a set of socio-economic variables: average national income per capita, average years of schooling in adults, and time, with tobacco use included for certain diseases. The methodology involves six analytical steps, including major cause regressions, death registration data analysis, and projections of income per capita, human capital, smoking impact, and technological change. The appendix also discusses specific projections for diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, intentional injuries, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis, detailing the assumptions and adjustments made for different scenarios (baseline, pessimistic, and optimistic). The projections aim to capture the impact of socioeconomic factors on health trends and provide a comprehensive framework for understanding future health dynamics.The technical appendix provides a detailed methodology for projecting global mortality and disease burden from 2002 to 2030, based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The projections use a set of socio-economic variables: average national income per capita, average years of schooling in adults, and time, with tobacco use included for certain diseases. The methodology involves six analytical steps, including major cause regressions, death registration data analysis, and projections of income per capita, human capital, smoking impact, and technological change. The appendix also discusses specific projections for diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, intentional injuries, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis, detailing the assumptions and adjustments made for different scenarios (baseline, pessimistic, and optimistic). The projections aim to capture the impact of socioeconomic factors on health trends and provide a comprehensive framework for understanding future health dynamics.
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