This paper tests the strong version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a panel of post-Bretton Woods data using cointegrated panel techniques. It compares results from fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) approaches and strongly rejects the hypothesis. A new between-dimension DOLS estimator is introduced, finding that between-dimension estimates of the long-run deviation from PPP are larger than within-dimension estimates. The paper reconciles these rejections with mixed findings in panel unit root studies.
The paper discusses the challenges of testing PPP for short time spans, noting that panel unit root studies often assume homogeneous cointegrating vectors, which may not hold. It argues that weak PPP, where cointegrating slopes may differ across countries, is more plausible. The study uses panel cointegration methods developed by Pedroni (1995) to test the stronger version of PPP, allowing for heterogeneous cointegrating relationships.
The paper introduces between-dimension estimators, which allow for more flexibility in the presence of heterogeneous cointegrating vectors. These estimators are shown to have lower small-sample size distortions compared to within-dimension estimators. The study finds that the between-dimension estimators consistently produce larger estimates of the long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and aggregate price ratios than within-dimension estimators.
The results from both individual and panel tests overwhelmingly reject the null hypothesis of strong PPP. For the panel tests, all six reported tests reject at the 10% level or better, with most rejecting at the 1% level. The between-dimension estimators consistently produce larger estimates than within-dimension estimators, suggesting a more accurate representation of the average long-run relationship.
The paper also addresses concerns about cross-sectional dependency and the validity of the cointegrating relationships. It notes that the results are robust to potential cross-sectional dependencies, as evidenced by the Bonferroni inequality constraint. The study concludes that the rejection of strong PPP is pervasive in the post-Bretton Woods period, not due to a few countries but across the panel.This paper tests the strong version of purchasing power parity (PPP) for a panel of post-Bretton Woods data using cointegrated panel techniques. It compares results from fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) approaches and strongly rejects the hypothesis. A new between-dimension DOLS estimator is introduced, finding that between-dimension estimates of the long-run deviation from PPP are larger than within-dimension estimates. The paper reconciles these rejections with mixed findings in panel unit root studies.
The paper discusses the challenges of testing PPP for short time spans, noting that panel unit root studies often assume homogeneous cointegrating vectors, which may not hold. It argues that weak PPP, where cointegrating slopes may differ across countries, is more plausible. The study uses panel cointegration methods developed by Pedroni (1995) to test the stronger version of PPP, allowing for heterogeneous cointegrating relationships.
The paper introduces between-dimension estimators, which allow for more flexibility in the presence of heterogeneous cointegrating vectors. These estimators are shown to have lower small-sample size distortions compared to within-dimension estimators. The study finds that the between-dimension estimators consistently produce larger estimates of the long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and aggregate price ratios than within-dimension estimators.
The results from both individual and panel tests overwhelmingly reject the null hypothesis of strong PPP. For the panel tests, all six reported tests reject at the 10% level or better, with most rejecting at the 1% level. The between-dimension estimators consistently produce larger estimates than within-dimension estimators, suggesting a more accurate representation of the average long-run relationship.
The paper also addresses concerns about cross-sectional dependency and the validity of the cointegrating relationships. It notes that the results are robust to potential cross-sectional dependencies, as evidenced by the Bonferroni inequality constraint. The study concludes that the rejection of strong PPP is pervasive in the post-Bretton Woods period, not due to a few countries but across the panel.