Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

15 May 2013 | John Cook, Dana Nuccitelli, Sarah A Green, Mark Richardson, Bärbel Winkler, Rob Painting, Robert Way, Peter Jacobs and Andrew Skuce
This study quantifies the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed literature from 1991 to 2011. The analysis includes 11,944 climate abstracts, finding that 66.4% expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed it, 0.7% rejected it, and 0.3% were uncertain. Among abstracts expressing a position, 97.1% endorsed the consensus that humans are causing global warming. A second phase of the study involved authors rating their own papers, with 97.2% of self-rated papers endorsing the consensus. The percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW increased marginally over time. The study concludes that the number of papers rejecting the consensus is a minuscule proportion of published research, and the public perception of a scientific consensus on AGW is significantly different from reality.This study quantifies the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed literature from 1991 to 2011. The analysis includes 11,944 climate abstracts, finding that 66.4% expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed it, 0.7% rejected it, and 0.3% were uncertain. Among abstracts expressing a position, 97.1% endorsed the consensus that humans are causing global warming. A second phase of the study involved authors rating their own papers, with 97.2% of self-rated papers endorsing the consensus. The percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW increased marginally over time. The study concludes that the number of papers rejecting the consensus is a minuscule proportion of published research, and the public perception of a scientific consensus on AGW is significantly different from reality.
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