Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age

Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age

2000 | DALE W. JORGENSON, KEVIN J. STIROH
The U.S. economy has experienced a remarkable transformation in recent years, with significant increases in output, labor productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP) since the mid-1990s. This growth has led to a debate about the sources of this economic resurgence, with proponents of the "new economy" attributing it to advancements in information technology (IT), particularly the rapid commercialization of the Internet. Skeptics argue that the recent success is due to temporary shocks rather than fundamental changes. The paper uses well-established methods to analyze the latest benchmark revision of the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) to document the case for raising intermediate-term projections of future growth. It highlights the rapid declines in the prices of computers and semiconductors, as well as evidence of similar price declines in software and communications equipment. Despite the limitations of available data, the mechanisms underlying the structural transformation are evident, such as the increasing role of computer hardware in economic growth. The paper decomposes economic growth into contributions from output and input categories, focusing on the period of the late 1990s. It finds that broad-defined capital services made the largest contribution to growth, followed by labor services, with TFP growth accounting for a smaller but significant portion. The contribution of IT outputs to growth has steadily increased, with computer investment being the largest single contributor. The paper also examines the impact of IT on average labor productivity (ALP) growth, noting that the acceleration in ALP growth is driven by capital deepening and faster TFP growth. The sustainability of growth in labor productivity is a key issue for future projections. The paper concludes that the gains from technological advances in IT industries are crucial, and the continued pace of technological progress in these sectors is critical for sustaining economic growth.The U.S. economy has experienced a remarkable transformation in recent years, with significant increases in output, labor productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP) since the mid-1990s. This growth has led to a debate about the sources of this economic resurgence, with proponents of the "new economy" attributing it to advancements in information technology (IT), particularly the rapid commercialization of the Internet. Skeptics argue that the recent success is due to temporary shocks rather than fundamental changes. The paper uses well-established methods to analyze the latest benchmark revision of the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) to document the case for raising intermediate-term projections of future growth. It highlights the rapid declines in the prices of computers and semiconductors, as well as evidence of similar price declines in software and communications equipment. Despite the limitations of available data, the mechanisms underlying the structural transformation are evident, such as the increasing role of computer hardware in economic growth. The paper decomposes economic growth into contributions from output and input categories, focusing on the period of the late 1990s. It finds that broad-defined capital services made the largest contribution to growth, followed by labor services, with TFP growth accounting for a smaller but significant portion. The contribution of IT outputs to growth has steadily increased, with computer investment being the largest single contributor. The paper also examines the impact of IT on average labor productivity (ALP) growth, noting that the acceleration in ALP growth is driven by capital deepening and faster TFP growth. The sustainability of growth in labor productivity is a key issue for future projections. The paper concludes that the gains from technological advances in IT industries are crucial, and the continued pace of technological progress in these sectors is critical for sustaining economic growth.
Reach us at info@study.space
[slides] Raising the Speed Limit%3A U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age | StudySpace