Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age

Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age

2000 | DALE W. JORGENSEN, KEVIN J. STIROH
The U.S. economy has experienced a significant transformation in recent years, with growth in output, labor productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP) accelerating since the mid-1990s. This growth resurgence has sparked debate about the sources of this growth and whether profound structural changes are occurring in the economy. Proponents of the "new economy" argue that the increased growth is due to developments in information technology (IT), particularly the rapid commercialization of the Internet. Opponents, however, suggest that the recent success is due to a series of favorable, temporary shocks. The paper analyzes the impact of IT on U.S. economic growth using new data from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). It documents the case for raising the speed limit, suggesting that intermediate-term growth projections should be revised upward to reflect the latest data and trends. The late 1990s were exceptional compared to the past quarter-century, with growth rates not yet returning to those of the 1960s, but the data clearly show a remarkable transformation. Productivity growth, capital accumulation, and the impact of technology have moved from academic debates into popular discussion. The paper uses well-tested methods to analyze the new data, showing that the price of computers has fallen at an unprecedented rate, leading to increased investment and growth contributions from computer hardware. Software and communications equipment also contributed to growth. The acceleration of average labor productivity (ALP) growth in the 1990s, driven by capital deepening and faster TFP growth, highlights the role of IT in boosting productivity. The paper also discusses the challenges in measuring productivity gains in service industries, where IT adoption has not translated into significant productivity growth. It argues that the rewards from new technology accrue to direct participants, such as innovating industries producing high-technology assets and industries restructuring to implement the latest technology. However, there is little evidence of spillovers from IT production to other industries. The paper concludes that the sustainability of growth in labor productivity is key to future growth projections. The recent experience provides grounds for caution, as much depends on productivity gains in high-technology industries. Ongoing technological advances in these industries have been a direct source of improvement in TFP growth and an indirect source of more rapid capital deepening. The sustainability of this growth hinges on the future pace of technological progress in these industries. The paper also highlights the importance of accurate measurement of IT-related growth and the need for further research to understand the full impact of IT on the economy.The U.S. economy has experienced a significant transformation in recent years, with growth in output, labor productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP) accelerating since the mid-1990s. This growth resurgence has sparked debate about the sources of this growth and whether profound structural changes are occurring in the economy. Proponents of the "new economy" argue that the increased growth is due to developments in information technology (IT), particularly the rapid commercialization of the Internet. Opponents, however, suggest that the recent success is due to a series of favorable, temporary shocks. The paper analyzes the impact of IT on U.S. economic growth using new data from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). It documents the case for raising the speed limit, suggesting that intermediate-term growth projections should be revised upward to reflect the latest data and trends. The late 1990s were exceptional compared to the past quarter-century, with growth rates not yet returning to those of the 1960s, but the data clearly show a remarkable transformation. Productivity growth, capital accumulation, and the impact of technology have moved from academic debates into popular discussion. The paper uses well-tested methods to analyze the new data, showing that the price of computers has fallen at an unprecedented rate, leading to increased investment and growth contributions from computer hardware. Software and communications equipment also contributed to growth. The acceleration of average labor productivity (ALP) growth in the 1990s, driven by capital deepening and faster TFP growth, highlights the role of IT in boosting productivity. The paper also discusses the challenges in measuring productivity gains in service industries, where IT adoption has not translated into significant productivity growth. It argues that the rewards from new technology accrue to direct participants, such as innovating industries producing high-technology assets and industries restructuring to implement the latest technology. However, there is little evidence of spillovers from IT production to other industries. The paper concludes that the sustainability of growth in labor productivity is key to future growth projections. The recent experience provides grounds for caution, as much depends on productivity gains in high-technology industries. Ongoing technological advances in these industries have been a direct source of improvement in TFP growth and an indirect source of more rapid capital deepening. The sustainability of this growth hinges on the future pace of technological progress in these industries. The paper also highlights the importance of accurate measurement of IT-related growth and the need for further research to understand the full impact of IT on the economy.
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