March 12, 2020 | David Baud, Xiaolong Qi, Karin Nielsen-Saines, Didier Musso, Léo Pomar, Guillaume Favre
The article discusses the estimation of mortality rates following COVID-19 infection. As of March 1, 2020, there were 79,968 confirmed cases in China and 7,169 outside of China, with 2,873 deaths in China (3.6% mortality rate) and 104 deaths outside (1.5% mortality rate). However, these rates are based on confirmed cases, which may not reflect the true mortality rate, as the denominator should include all infected individuals at the time of death, not just confirmed cases. The authors re-estimated mortality rates by considering a 14-day delay between infection and death, resulting in higher rates: 5.6% in China and 15.2% outside of China. Global mortality rates, adjusted for a 14-day delay, converge to around 5.7%. If a longer delay is considered, estimates could increase. A recent study suggests a mortality rate as high as 20% in Wuhan. These findings indicate that current figures may underestimate the true mortality risk in symptomatic patients. The study highlights the importance of considering the incubation period and time from symptom onset to death when estimating mortality rates. The authors declare no competing interests. The study was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.The article discusses the estimation of mortality rates following COVID-19 infection. As of March 1, 2020, there were 79,968 confirmed cases in China and 7,169 outside of China, with 2,873 deaths in China (3.6% mortality rate) and 104 deaths outside (1.5% mortality rate). However, these rates are based on confirmed cases, which may not reflect the true mortality rate, as the denominator should include all infected individuals at the time of death, not just confirmed cases. The authors re-estimated mortality rates by considering a 14-day delay between infection and death, resulting in higher rates: 5.6% in China and 15.2% outside of China. Global mortality rates, adjusted for a 14-day delay, converge to around 5.7%. If a longer delay is considered, estimates could increase. A recent study suggests a mortality rate as high as 20% in Wuhan. These findings indicate that current figures may underestimate the true mortality risk in symptomatic patients. The study highlights the importance of considering the incubation period and time from symptom onset to death when estimating mortality rates. The authors declare no competing interests. The study was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.