26 February 2024 | Timo Conradi, Urs Eggli, Holger Kreft, Andreas H. Schweiger, Patrick Weigelt, Steven I. Higgins
This study assesses the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems by transforming ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. Using an ecophysiological plant growth model and data on 135,153 vascular plant species, the researchers forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience significant changes in phytoclimate by 2070 under different emission scenarios. The study identifies regions with novel and disappearing phytoclimates, highlighting the need for targeted conservation actions. The findings suggest a profound transformation of the biosphere and emphasize the urgency of adapting biodiversity management practices. The analysis also reveals that the geographic pattern of change, disappearance, and novelty of phytoclimates differs from previous studies, underscoring the limitations of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments.This study assesses the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems by transforming ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. Using an ecophysiological plant growth model and data on 135,153 vascular plant species, the researchers forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience significant changes in phytoclimate by 2070 under different emission scenarios. The study identifies regions with novel and disappearing phytoclimates, highlighting the need for targeted conservation actions. The findings suggest a profound transformation of the biosphere and emphasize the urgency of adapting biodiversity management practices. The analysis also reveals that the geographic pattern of change, disappearance, and novelty of phytoclimates differs from previous studies, underscoring the limitations of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments.