2024 | Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Caroline Jouan, Timothy Andrews, Piers M. Forster, Hailing Jia, Norman G. Loeb, Dirk J. L. Olivié, David Paynter, Johannes Quaas, Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Michael Schulz
Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth's energy imbalance, a phenomenon where the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere is positive. This trend, observed over the past two decades, is attributed to anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. The study investigates the contributions of anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions to this imbalance using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. The results show that the effective radiative forcing due to reduced aerosol emissions has strengthened the 2001–2019 imbalance trend by 0.2 ± 0.1 W m⁻² decade⁻¹. Multi-model ensemble simulations reproduce the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m⁻² decade⁻¹ but with a 10–40% underestimation. With future scenarios indicating further rapid reductions in aerosol emissions, this trend may continue to strengthen Earth's energy imbalance, leading to accelerated surface temperature warming in the coming decade. The study highlights the significant impact of aerosol reductions on global warming and underscores the need for continued efforts to reduce aerosol emissions to mitigate climate change.Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth's energy imbalance, a phenomenon where the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere is positive. This trend, observed over the past two decades, is attributed to anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. The study investigates the contributions of anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions to this imbalance using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. The results show that the effective radiative forcing due to reduced aerosol emissions has strengthened the 2001–2019 imbalance trend by 0.2 ± 0.1 W m⁻² decade⁻¹. Multi-model ensemble simulations reproduce the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m⁻² decade⁻¹ but with a 10–40% underestimation. With future scenarios indicating further rapid reductions in aerosol emissions, this trend may continue to strengthen Earth's energy imbalance, leading to accelerated surface temperature warming in the coming decade. The study highlights the significant impact of aerosol reductions on global warming and underscores the need for continued efforts to reduce aerosol emissions to mitigate climate change.