Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change

Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change

December 1, 1995 | Judith Lean, Juerg Beer and Raymond Bradley
A reconstruction of solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiance from 1610 to the present is presented, showing the Schwabe (11-year) cycle and a longer-term variability component. The reconstruction indicates that solar irradiance was significantly lower during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and increased to modern levels. The correlation between reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre-industrial period (1610-1800), suggesting a dominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970. The study investigates the role of solar variability in climate change, using decadal averages of reconstructed solar irradiance and NH temperature anomalies. From 1610 to 1800, the correlation between surface temperature and solar irradiance is 0.86, indicating a strong solar influence. The reconstruction shows that solar irradiance decreased by 0.24% during the Maunder Minimum, which is larger than the 0.1% Schwabe cycle amplitude. The study also reconstructs UV irradiance, which may impact climate by modulating the ozone layer and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The reconstruction of historical solar irradiance is based on parameterizations of sunspot darkening and facular brightening, using a long sunspot record. The results show that solar variability may have contributed a NH warming of 0.51°C from the seventeenth century to the present. About half of the observed 0.55°C warming since 1860 may reflect natural variability from solar radiative forcing, although since 1970 less than one third of the warming is attributable to solar variability. The study concludes that solar variability may have played a larger role in recent global temperature change than previously acknowledged. Continued space-based solar irradiance monitoring is important to quantify natural solar forcing of future climate. Improved understanding of the physical causes of solar and cosmogenic isotope variability, and the pathways by which the climate system responds to solar radiative forcing, is also needed.A reconstruction of solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiance from 1610 to the present is presented, showing the Schwabe (11-year) cycle and a longer-term variability component. The reconstruction indicates that solar irradiance was significantly lower during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and increased to modern levels. The correlation between reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre-industrial period (1610-1800), suggesting a dominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970. The study investigates the role of solar variability in climate change, using decadal averages of reconstructed solar irradiance and NH temperature anomalies. From 1610 to 1800, the correlation between surface temperature and solar irradiance is 0.86, indicating a strong solar influence. The reconstruction shows that solar irradiance decreased by 0.24% during the Maunder Minimum, which is larger than the 0.1% Schwabe cycle amplitude. The study also reconstructs UV irradiance, which may impact climate by modulating the ozone layer and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The reconstruction of historical solar irradiance is based on parameterizations of sunspot darkening and facular brightening, using a long sunspot record. The results show that solar variability may have contributed a NH warming of 0.51°C from the seventeenth century to the present. About half of the observed 0.55°C warming since 1860 may reflect natural variability from solar radiative forcing, although since 1970 less than one third of the warming is attributable to solar variability. The study concludes that solar variability may have played a larger role in recent global temperature change than previously acknowledged. Continued space-based solar irradiance monitoring is important to quantify natural solar forcing of future climate. Improved understanding of the physical causes of solar and cosmogenic isotope variability, and the pathways by which the climate system responds to solar radiative forcing, is also needed.
Reach us at info@study.space