Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change

Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change

VOL. 22, NO. 23, PAGES 3195-3198, DECEMBER 1, 1995 | Judith Lean, Juerg Beer, and Raymond Bradley
The paper reconstructs solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiance from 1610 to the present, including the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Modern Maximum. The reconstruction separates the Schwabe (11-year) irradiance cycle from a longer-term variability component, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation between reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 from 1610 to 1800, indicating a significant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one-third of the warming since 1970. The study also reconstructs annual UV irradiance, which is absorbed in the Earth's atmosphere and may impact climate indirectly through ozone layer modulation. The results highlight the potential role of solar variability in recent global temperature changes, emphasizing the need for continued space-based monitoring and a better understanding of solar variability.The paper reconstructs solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiance from 1610 to the present, including the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Modern Maximum. The reconstruction separates the Schwabe (11-year) irradiance cycle from a longer-term variability component, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation between reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 from 1610 to 1800, indicating a significant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one-third of the warming since 1970. The study also reconstructs annual UV irradiance, which is absorbed in the Earth's atmosphere and may impact climate indirectly through ozone layer modulation. The results highlight the potential role of solar variability in recent global temperature changes, emphasizing the need for continued space-based monitoring and a better understanding of solar variability.
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