7 June 2024 | Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Andries F. Hof, Maarten van den Berg, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Vassilis Daioglou, Mark M. Dekker, Jonathan C. Doelman, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Mathijs Harmsen, Stratos Mikropoulos, Mariëssie A. E. van Sluisveld, Elke Stehfest, Isabela S. Tagomori, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Detlef P. van Vuuren
To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are necessary to compensate for residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as industry, agriculture, buildings, and transport. However, dependencies on CDR technologies pose environmental, technical, and social risks, particularly regarding increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. This study uses scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target to show that demand and technological interventions can significantly reduce emission levels in these hard-to-abate sectors and reduce reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual BECCS use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e per year and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year, respectively, compared to 10.3 GtCO₂e per year in the default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary changes play a critical role in demand measures due to their significant share in residual agricultural emissions.
The study explores and assesses demand and technological options for limiting residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors. It discusses barriers to fully reducing emissions in these sectors and potential measures and policies to overcome them. The results show that additional measures can reduce global residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors to between 5.6 and 7.1 GtCO₂e by 2060, compared to 8.3 GtCO₂e in the reference 1.5 °C scenario. These measures include promoting sustainable fuels, electrification, efficiency-improving techniques, and lifestyle changes such as diet shifts. The impact of these measures on BECCS use is also analyzed, showing that peak annual BECCS use can be strongly limited to 2.2 GtCO₂e per year in the Demand 1.5 °C scenario and 7.0 GtCO₂e per year in the Technology 1.5 °C scenario.
The study concludes that while hard-to-abate sectors face significant challenges, they can achieve lower emission levels by implementing drastic demand and technological interventions. This has substantial implications for the peak annual use of BECCS, which can be limited to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e per year in the Demand 1.5 °C scenario and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year in the Technology 1.5 °C scenario. Agriculture plays a critical role in reducing non-CO₂ GHGs, and dietary changes can significantly impact land-use change and afforestation potential. The study provides alternative pathways to cost-effective ones, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development and equity in achieving net-zero emissions.To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are necessary to compensate for residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as industry, agriculture, buildings, and transport. However, dependencies on CDR technologies pose environmental, technical, and social risks, particularly regarding increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. This study uses scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target to show that demand and technological interventions can significantly reduce emission levels in these hard-to-abate sectors and reduce reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual BECCS use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e per year and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year, respectively, compared to 10.3 GtCO₂e per year in the default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary changes play a critical role in demand measures due to their significant share in residual agricultural emissions.
The study explores and assesses demand and technological options for limiting residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors. It discusses barriers to fully reducing emissions in these sectors and potential measures and policies to overcome them. The results show that additional measures can reduce global residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors to between 5.6 and 7.1 GtCO₂e by 2060, compared to 8.3 GtCO₂e in the reference 1.5 °C scenario. These measures include promoting sustainable fuels, electrification, efficiency-improving techniques, and lifestyle changes such as diet shifts. The impact of these measures on BECCS use is also analyzed, showing that peak annual BECCS use can be strongly limited to 2.2 GtCO₂e per year in the Demand 1.5 °C scenario and 7.0 GtCO₂e per year in the Technology 1.5 °C scenario.
The study concludes that while hard-to-abate sectors face significant challenges, they can achieve lower emission levels by implementing drastic demand and technological interventions. This has substantial implications for the peak annual use of BECCS, which can be limited to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e per year in the Demand 1.5 °C scenario and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year in the Technology 1.5 °C scenario. Agriculture plays a critical role in reducing non-CO₂ GHGs, and dietary changes can significantly impact land-use change and afforestation potential. The study provides alternative pathways to cost-effective ones, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development and equity in achieving net-zero emissions.