Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

July 2024 | Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Andries F. Hof, Maarten van den Berg, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Vassilis Daiglou, Mark M. Dekker, Jonathan C. Doelman, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Mathijs Harmsen, Stratos Mikropoulos, Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld, Elke Stehfest, Isabela S. Tagomori, Willem-Jan van Zeist & Detlef P. van Vuuren
The article discusses the importance of reducing emissions in hard-to-abate (HtA) sectors to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. It highlights that while CDR is necessary to meet net-zero targets, it carries environmental, technical, and social risks. The study uses scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C target to show that demand and technological interventions can significantly lower emissions in four HtA sectors: industry, agriculture, buildings, and transport. These interventions could reduce the annual use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) from 10.3 GtCO₂e to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e, respectively. Dietary changes play a critical role in reducing agricultural emissions. The study emphasizes that achieving net-zero emissions requires balancing residual emissions in some sectors with sinks in others. The IPCC's AR6 scenarios show that net-zero CO₂ can be achieved with annual residual emissions of around 11 GtCO₂, compensated by CDR. However, only 5% of scenarios report residual emissions below 5 GtCO₂. The HtA sectors, including heavy industry, international transport, agriculture, and buildings, face unique challenges due to complex value chains, long lifetimes of infrastructure, and limited public support. The study explores demand and technological measures to reduce emissions in HtA sectors. These include promoting sustainable fuels, electrification, and efficiency improvements. Dietary changes and reduced food waste are key in agriculture. The study also examines the impact of these measures on BECCS use, showing that they can significantly reduce its reliance. For example, in the Demand 1.5°C scenario, BECCS use is reduced by 20–94% compared to the Reference 1.5°C scenario. The Technology 1.5°C scenario shows even greater reductions, with BECCS use limited to 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year. The study concludes that while HtA sectors face significant challenges, they can achieve lower emissions through drastic demand and technological interventions. This reduces the need for CDR technologies and helps achieve the 1.5°C target. However, the feasibility of these measures depends on social, economic, and technological factors, and the challenge of achieving net-zero emissions within a few decades remains substantial.The article discusses the importance of reducing emissions in hard-to-abate (HtA) sectors to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. It highlights that while CDR is necessary to meet net-zero targets, it carries environmental, technical, and social risks. The study uses scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C target to show that demand and technological interventions can significantly lower emissions in four HtA sectors: industry, agriculture, buildings, and transport. These interventions could reduce the annual use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) from 10.3 GtCO₂e to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e, respectively. Dietary changes play a critical role in reducing agricultural emissions. The study emphasizes that achieving net-zero emissions requires balancing residual emissions in some sectors with sinks in others. The IPCC's AR6 scenarios show that net-zero CO₂ can be achieved with annual residual emissions of around 11 GtCO₂, compensated by CDR. However, only 5% of scenarios report residual emissions below 5 GtCO₂. The HtA sectors, including heavy industry, international transport, agriculture, and buildings, face unique challenges due to complex value chains, long lifetimes of infrastructure, and limited public support. The study explores demand and technological measures to reduce emissions in HtA sectors. These include promoting sustainable fuels, electrification, and efficiency improvements. Dietary changes and reduced food waste are key in agriculture. The study also examines the impact of these measures on BECCS use, showing that they can significantly reduce its reliance. For example, in the Demand 1.5°C scenario, BECCS use is reduced by 20–94% compared to the Reference 1.5°C scenario. The Technology 1.5°C scenario shows even greater reductions, with BECCS use limited to 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year. The study concludes that while HtA sectors face significant challenges, they can achieve lower emissions through drastic demand and technological interventions. This reduces the need for CDR technologies and helps achieve the 1.5°C target. However, the feasibility of these measures depends on social, economic, and technological factors, and the challenge of achieving net-zero emissions within a few decades remains substantial.
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