Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

August 2012 | Volume 6 | Issue 8 | e1760 | Oliver J. Brady, Peter W. Gething, Samir Bhatt, Jane P. Messina, John S. Brownstein, Anne G. Hoen, Catherine L. Moyes, Andrew W. Farlow, Thomas W. Scott, Simon I. Hay
This study aims to refine the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by developing an evidence-based consensus map. The authors address the challenges of diagnosing dengue and the variability in national health systems, which make it difficult to estimate the disease's distribution accurately. They developed a methodology to assess evidence for dengue occurrence in each country, using a weighted scoring system to calculate "evidence consensus" for each country. This approach highlights nations with uncertain dengue status and identifies gaps in available evidence. The resulting map identifies 128 countries with good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries previously classified as dengue-free by the WHO and CDC. The study also emphasizes the importance of local knowledge and suggests that presence/absence maps do not adequately capture the uncertainties in the evidence base. The authors plan to continue data collection and improve the methodology to better understand dengue virus transmission and disease risk.This study aims to refine the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by developing an evidence-based consensus map. The authors address the challenges of diagnosing dengue and the variability in national health systems, which make it difficult to estimate the disease's distribution accurately. They developed a methodology to assess evidence for dengue occurrence in each country, using a weighted scoring system to calculate "evidence consensus" for each country. This approach highlights nations with uncertain dengue status and identifies gaps in available evidence. The resulting map identifies 128 countries with good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries previously classified as dengue-free by the WHO and CDC. The study also emphasizes the importance of local knowledge and suggests that presence/absence maps do not adequately capture the uncertainties in the evidence base. The authors plan to continue data collection and improve the methodology to better understand dengue virus transmission and disease risk.
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