Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

August 7, 2012 | Oliver J. Brady, Peter W. Gething, Samir Bhatt, Jane P. Messina, John S. Brownstein, Anne G. Hoen, Catherine L. Moyes, Andrew W. Farlow, Thomas W. Scott, Simon I. Hay
This study presents a global map of dengue virus transmission based on evidence-based consensus, highlighting countries with uncertain dengue status. The research team compiled data from various sources, including health organizations, peer-reviewed studies, case data, and supplementary evidence, to assess the presence or absence of dengue in each country. A weighted scoring system was used to calculate an "evidence consensus" score for each country, reflecting the certainty of dengue presence or absence. The resulting map identifies 128 countries with good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 previously classified as dengue-free by the WHO or CDC. The study also highlights surveillance needs and identifies gaps in the available evidence. The map marks the beginning of a five-year project to improve the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. The study estimates that up to 3.97 billion people are at risk of dengue transmission, with the figure expected to be refined in future work. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate, contemporary evidence in assessing dengue status, particularly in regions with limited data. The results show that dengue is widespread in Africa, suggesting that current models may underestimate its distribution. The study also highlights the need for improved data collection and surveillance to better understand dengue transmission and risk. The evidence consensus approach provides a more informative alternative to existing country-level maps, as it incorporates diverse forms of evidence that may be overlooked by other organizations. The study concludes that the evidence consensus approach is ideal for mapping neglected tropical diseases where the evidence base is incomplete or less reliable. The study also discusses the importance of integrating diverse data sources, including internet search engine terms and multi-language text-mining systems, to improve the accuracy of dengue transmission mapping. The study recommends further research to refine the evidence consensus approach and improve the mapping of dengue virus transmission.This study presents a global map of dengue virus transmission based on evidence-based consensus, highlighting countries with uncertain dengue status. The research team compiled data from various sources, including health organizations, peer-reviewed studies, case data, and supplementary evidence, to assess the presence or absence of dengue in each country. A weighted scoring system was used to calculate an "evidence consensus" score for each country, reflecting the certainty of dengue presence or absence. The resulting map identifies 128 countries with good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 previously classified as dengue-free by the WHO or CDC. The study also highlights surveillance needs and identifies gaps in the available evidence. The map marks the beginning of a five-year project to improve the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. The study estimates that up to 3.97 billion people are at risk of dengue transmission, with the figure expected to be refined in future work. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate, contemporary evidence in assessing dengue status, particularly in regions with limited data. The results show that dengue is widespread in Africa, suggesting that current models may underestimate its distribution. The study also highlights the need for improved data collection and surveillance to better understand dengue transmission and risk. The evidence consensus approach provides a more informative alternative to existing country-level maps, as it incorporates diverse forms of evidence that may be overlooked by other organizations. The study concludes that the evidence consensus approach is ideal for mapping neglected tropical diseases where the evidence base is incomplete or less reliable. The study also discusses the importance of integrating diverse data sources, including internet search engine terms and multi-language text-mining systems, to improve the accuracy of dengue transmission mapping. The study recommends further research to refine the evidence consensus approach and improve the mapping of dengue virus transmission.
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