This study investigates the impact of regional-scale and nonlinear vertical land motion (VLM) on projected relative sea-level changes up to 2150. VLM, which is often modeled as a linear process, can significantly influence coastal sea-level changes, contributing up to 50 cm by 2150. The authors develop a probabilistic VLM reconstruction from 1995 to 2020 using a Bayesian principal component analysis (BPCA) of GNSS and tide gauge data. They find that VLM uncertainties can increase the uncertainty in projections by up to 1 meter on a regional scale. The study highlights the importance of accounting for nonlinear VLM in future coastal impact assessments and sea-level change projections. The results also show that VLM plays a significant role in future sea-level changes, particularly in regions with high tectonic activity or localized subsidence. The authors conclude that neglecting VLM in sea-level projections could lead to underestimating future sea-level rise by up to 50 cm in some regions.This study investigates the impact of regional-scale and nonlinear vertical land motion (VLM) on projected relative sea-level changes up to 2150. VLM, which is often modeled as a linear process, can significantly influence coastal sea-level changes, contributing up to 50 cm by 2150. The authors develop a probabilistic VLM reconstruction from 1995 to 2020 using a Bayesian principal component analysis (BPCA) of GNSS and tide gauge data. They find that VLM uncertainties can increase the uncertainty in projections by up to 1 meter on a regional scale. The study highlights the importance of accounting for nonlinear VLM in future coastal impact assessments and sea-level change projections. The results also show that VLM plays a significant role in future sea-level changes, particularly in regions with high tectonic activity or localized subsidence. The authors conclude that neglecting VLM in sea-level projections could lead to underestimating future sea-level rise by up to 50 cm in some regions.