Rethinking Regional Path Dependence: Beyond Lock-in to Evolution

Rethinking Regional Path Dependence: Beyond Lock-in to Evolution

Revised 21 July 2009 | Ron Martin
This paper argues that the canonical path dependence model, with its core concept of 'lock-in', offers a very restrictive and narrowly applicable account of regional and local industrial evolution. It is tied to problematic underpinnings based on equilibrist thinking and stresses continuity rather than change. The paper explores recent developments in historical sociology and political science, where there are active attempts to rethink the application of path dependence to the evolution of institutions to emphasize change rather than continuity. These developments are used to argue for a rethinking of path dependence ideas in economic geography. The canonical model of path dependence is discussed, highlighting its key features and problems. It is argued that the concept of 'lock-in' is limited and restrictive, emphasizing continuity and stability rather than change. The paper suggests looking outside economics to explore recent debates in political science and historical sociology, where similar concerns over 'lock-in' as a model of institutional evolution have stimulated attempts to recast path dependence theory to emphasize change as well as continuity. Drawing on this literature, the paper offers ideas for a more general model of regional path dependent industrial development that allows for a broader set of evolutionary processes and possibilities. The paper critiques the notion of 'lock-in' as equilibrist in conception, arguing that it runs counter to the key tenets of evolutionary economics, especially the ideas of endogenous change, constant transformation, and the role of novelty. It suggests that the concept of 'lock-in' is antithetical to industrial and technological evolution, as it implies that systems converge to a stable equilibrium state, which is not always the case in real-world economies. The paper argues for an alternative model of path dependence that allows for a richer repertoire of evolutionary possibilities, emphasizing the complexity and heterogeneity of local and regional economies. It suggests that institutions and socio-economic systems are composite entities, and that changes are possible among the micro-components without causing coordination failures. This allows for ongoing mutation and adaptation of institutions, and may never become 'locked-in' to any stable or 'equilibrium' configuration. The paper also highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneity of local industries and the need for a more nuanced understanding of path dependence in economic geography.This paper argues that the canonical path dependence model, with its core concept of 'lock-in', offers a very restrictive and narrowly applicable account of regional and local industrial evolution. It is tied to problematic underpinnings based on equilibrist thinking and stresses continuity rather than change. The paper explores recent developments in historical sociology and political science, where there are active attempts to rethink the application of path dependence to the evolution of institutions to emphasize change rather than continuity. These developments are used to argue for a rethinking of path dependence ideas in economic geography. The canonical model of path dependence is discussed, highlighting its key features and problems. It is argued that the concept of 'lock-in' is limited and restrictive, emphasizing continuity and stability rather than change. The paper suggests looking outside economics to explore recent debates in political science and historical sociology, where similar concerns over 'lock-in' as a model of institutional evolution have stimulated attempts to recast path dependence theory to emphasize change as well as continuity. Drawing on this literature, the paper offers ideas for a more general model of regional path dependent industrial development that allows for a broader set of evolutionary processes and possibilities. The paper critiques the notion of 'lock-in' as equilibrist in conception, arguing that it runs counter to the key tenets of evolutionary economics, especially the ideas of endogenous change, constant transformation, and the role of novelty. It suggests that the concept of 'lock-in' is antithetical to industrial and technological evolution, as it implies that systems converge to a stable equilibrium state, which is not always the case in real-world economies. The paper argues for an alternative model of path dependence that allows for a richer repertoire of evolutionary possibilities, emphasizing the complexity and heterogeneity of local and regional economies. It suggests that institutions and socio-economic systems are composite entities, and that changes are possible among the micro-components without causing coordination failures. This allows for ongoing mutation and adaptation of institutions, and may never become 'locked-in' to any stable or 'equilibrium' configuration. The paper also highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneity of local industries and the need for a more nuanced understanding of path dependence in economic geography.
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