This paper reconsiders the concept of path dependence in economic geography, particularly focusing on the 'lock-in' mechanism. The author argues that the canonical model of path dependence, as proposed by Paul David and Brian Arthur, is overly restrictive and rooted in equilibrium thinking, which emphasizes continuity over change. The paper explores recent developments in historical sociology and political science, where researchers are rethinking path dependence to emphasize change rather than stability. These insights are used to propose a more flexible model of regional path-dependent industrial development that allows for a broader range of evolutionary processes and possibilities.
The canonical model of path dependence is characterized by three key features: the accidental origin of new paths, the concept of 'lock-in,' and the role of exogenous shocks to disrupt stable states. However, these features are problematic, especially the notion of 'lock-in,' which is equilibrist in conception. The author critiques the idea of 'lock-in' as a process of convergence to a history-dependent equilibrium, arguing that it contradicts the principles of evolutionary economics, which emphasize endogenous change and constant transformation.
To address these issues, the paper proposes an alternative model of path dependence that moves beyond 'lock-in.' This new model acknowledges the heterogeneity and complexity of local and regional economies, recognizing that industries are complex systems composed of numerous firms that can respond to competitive pressures in various ways. The paper draws on recent research in political science and historical sociology, which suggests mechanisms such as 'layering,' 'conversion,' and 'recombination' that allow for incremental change and evolution within path-dependent systems. These mechanisms enable institutions and socio-economic systems to change over time without becoming 'locked-in' to stable equilibrium states.
In conclusion, the paper calls for a rethinking of path dependence in economic geography to better capture the dynamic and evolving nature of regional and local economies.This paper reconsiders the concept of path dependence in economic geography, particularly focusing on the 'lock-in' mechanism. The author argues that the canonical model of path dependence, as proposed by Paul David and Brian Arthur, is overly restrictive and rooted in equilibrium thinking, which emphasizes continuity over change. The paper explores recent developments in historical sociology and political science, where researchers are rethinking path dependence to emphasize change rather than stability. These insights are used to propose a more flexible model of regional path-dependent industrial development that allows for a broader range of evolutionary processes and possibilities.
The canonical model of path dependence is characterized by three key features: the accidental origin of new paths, the concept of 'lock-in,' and the role of exogenous shocks to disrupt stable states. However, these features are problematic, especially the notion of 'lock-in,' which is equilibrist in conception. The author critiques the idea of 'lock-in' as a process of convergence to a history-dependent equilibrium, arguing that it contradicts the principles of evolutionary economics, which emphasize endogenous change and constant transformation.
To address these issues, the paper proposes an alternative model of path dependence that moves beyond 'lock-in.' This new model acknowledges the heterogeneity and complexity of local and regional economies, recognizing that industries are complex systems composed of numerous firms that can respond to competitive pressures in various ways. The paper draws on recent research in political science and historical sociology, which suggests mechanisms such as 'layering,' 'conversion,' and 'recombination' that allow for incremental change and evolution within path-dependent systems. These mechanisms enable institutions and socio-economic systems to change over time without becoming 'locked-in' to stable equilibrium states.
In conclusion, the paper calls for a rethinking of path dependence in economic geography to better capture the dynamic and evolving nature of regional and local economies.