Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

10 February 2010 | Wolfram Schlenker and David B Lobell
The paper by Wolfram Schlenker and David B. Lobell examines the robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture, focusing on five staple crops: maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, and cassava. Using historical crop production and weather data, they develop a panel model to estimate yield responses to climate change. By mid-century, the model predicts significant reductions in aggregate production for these crops, with mean estimates of −22%, −17%, −17%, −18%, and −8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, and cassava, respectively. The study highlights that countries with higher average yields are more vulnerable to temperature increases, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat-related losses. The authors also discuss the limitations of their methods, including the coarse gridded weather data and the need for more precise climate change forecasts and crop response functions. They conclude that the findings underscore the urgency of investing in agricultural productivity and adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on African agriculture.The paper by Wolfram Schlenker and David B. Lobell examines the robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture, focusing on five staple crops: maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, and cassava. Using historical crop production and weather data, they develop a panel model to estimate yield responses to climate change. By mid-century, the model predicts significant reductions in aggregate production for these crops, with mean estimates of −22%, −17%, −17%, −18%, and −8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, and cassava, respectively. The study highlights that countries with higher average yields are more vulnerable to temperature increases, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat-related losses. The authors also discuss the limitations of their methods, including the coarse gridded weather data and the need for more precise climate change forecasts and crop response functions. They conclude that the findings underscore the urgency of investing in agricultural productivity and adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on African agriculture.
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