This study investigates the impacts of climate change on African agriculture, focusing on five key crops: maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava. Using a panel dataset combining historical crop production and weather data, the researchers find that by mid-century, average production changes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) under their preferred model are projected to be -22%, -17%, -17%, -18%, and -8% for the five crops, respectively. There is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, with a 5% chance of exceeding 27% for all crops except cassava. Countries with higher average yields are projected to experience larger yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more vulnerable to heat-related losses. The study uses a statistical approach to analyze the relationship between crop yields and weather fluctuations, accounting for various sources of uncertainty, including climate and model-related uncertainties. The results show that temperature changes have a much stronger impact on yields than precipitation changes. The study also highlights the importance of considering the effects of climate change on different regions and crops, as well as the need for improved crop response functions and more accurate climate forecasts to narrow confidence intervals. The study finds that while some previous studies have suggested potential yield losses of up to 50% by 2020, these estimates are often based on limited empirical evidence. The current study provides more robust estimates, showing that climate change is likely to have significant negative impacts on African agriculture. The findings suggest that substantial investments in agricultural productivity, including the development of drought and heat-tolerant crop varieties, improved irrigation systems, and disaster relief efforts, will be necessary to adapt to these changes. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering the role of fertilizer use in mitigating the effects of climate change on crop yields.This study investigates the impacts of climate change on African agriculture, focusing on five key crops: maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava. Using a panel dataset combining historical crop production and weather data, the researchers find that by mid-century, average production changes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) under their preferred model are projected to be -22%, -17%, -17%, -18%, and -8% for the five crops, respectively. There is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, with a 5% chance of exceeding 27% for all crops except cassava. Countries with higher average yields are projected to experience larger yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more vulnerable to heat-related losses. The study uses a statistical approach to analyze the relationship between crop yields and weather fluctuations, accounting for various sources of uncertainty, including climate and model-related uncertainties. The results show that temperature changes have a much stronger impact on yields than precipitation changes. The study also highlights the importance of considering the effects of climate change on different regions and crops, as well as the need for improved crop response functions and more accurate climate forecasts to narrow confidence intervals. The study finds that while some previous studies have suggested potential yield losses of up to 50% by 2020, these estimates are often based on limited empirical evidence. The current study provides more robust estimates, showing that climate change is likely to have significant negative impacts on African agriculture. The findings suggest that substantial investments in agricultural productivity, including the development of drought and heat-tolerant crop varieties, improved irrigation systems, and disaster relief efforts, will be necessary to adapt to these changes. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering the role of fertilizer use in mitigating the effects of climate change on crop yields.