The paper by Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh analyzes the potential impact of technological progress leading to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) on output, wages, and human welfare. They assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks of varying complexity, and that technological advancements make more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on the race between automation and capital accumulation. If the distribution of task complexity has a thick infinite tail, there will always be enough work for humans, potentially leading to rising wages. Conversely, if the complexity of tasks humans can perform is bounded and full automation is achieved, wages may collapse. The authors also explore the role of fixed factors and innovation in shaping economic growth and factor returns. They simulate various scenarios, including a "business-as-usual" scenario, baseline and aggressive AGI scenarios, and a bout of automation followed by a long tail of tasks that remain unautomated. The results show that the fate of labor can change rapidly when certain thresholds are crossed, and that the effects of automation on output and wages depend on the availability of capital. The paper provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the economic implications of transitioning to AGI.The paper by Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh analyzes the potential impact of technological progress leading to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) on output, wages, and human welfare. They assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks of varying complexity, and that technological advancements make more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on the race between automation and capital accumulation. If the distribution of task complexity has a thick infinite tail, there will always be enough work for humans, potentially leading to rising wages. Conversely, if the complexity of tasks humans can perform is bounded and full automation is achieved, wages may collapse. The authors also explore the role of fixed factors and innovation in shaping economic growth and factor returns. They simulate various scenarios, including a "business-as-usual" scenario, baseline and aggressive AGI scenarios, and a bout of automation followed by a long tail of tasks that remain unautomated. The results show that the fate of labor can change rapidly when certain thresholds are crossed, and that the effects of automation on output and wages depend on the availability of capital. The paper provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the economic implications of transitioning to AGI.