Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

APRIL 2018 | Joeri Rogelj, Alexander Popp, Katherine V. Calvin, Gunnar Luderer, Johannes Emmerling, David Gernaat, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jessica Strefler, Tomoko Hasegawa, Giacomo Marangoni, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Jae Edmonds, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Petr Havlík, Florian Humpeñoder, Elke Stehfest and Massimo Tavoni
The study explores scenarios that limit global mean temperature increase to below 1.5°C by 2100, using six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Scenarios limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m⁻², resulting in median warming below 1.5°C. Successful scenarios involve rapid transition to low-carbon energy, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, achieving 1.9 W m⁻² scenarios is challenging under SSPs with high inequality, high fossil-fuel use, or weak climate policies. The study highlights the importance of socio-economic assumptions, technological advancements, and policy effectiveness in achieving climate goals. Scenarios show that CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions peak before 2030 and decline rapidly, with net-zero emissions reached by 2055–2075. Bioenergy use is significant in all scenarios, but concerns about food security and biodiversity arise. Land use changes and afforestation contribute to carbon-dioxide removal. The study emphasizes the need for integrated policies that balance climate mitigation with food security and sustainable development. The results show that stringent mitigation scenarios are feasible under certain SSPs but face challenges under others. The study provides insights into the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5°C, highlighting the importance of technological innovation, policy effectiveness, and socio-economic factors in achieving climate goals. The findings underscore the need for continued research and collaboration to address the complex challenges of climate change mitigation.The study explores scenarios that limit global mean temperature increase to below 1.5°C by 2100, using six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Scenarios limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m⁻², resulting in median warming below 1.5°C. Successful scenarios involve rapid transition to low-carbon energy, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, achieving 1.9 W m⁻² scenarios is challenging under SSPs with high inequality, high fossil-fuel use, or weak climate policies. The study highlights the importance of socio-economic assumptions, technological advancements, and policy effectiveness in achieving climate goals. Scenarios show that CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions peak before 2030 and decline rapidly, with net-zero emissions reached by 2055–2075. Bioenergy use is significant in all scenarios, but concerns about food security and biodiversity arise. Land use changes and afforestation contribute to carbon-dioxide removal. The study emphasizes the need for integrated policies that balance climate mitigation with food security and sustainable development. The results show that stringent mitigation scenarios are feasible under certain SSPs but face challenges under others. The study provides insights into the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5°C, highlighting the importance of technological innovation, policy effectiveness, and socio-economic factors in achieving climate goals. The findings underscore the need for continued research and collaboration to address the complex challenges of climate change mitigation.
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[slides and audio] Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 %C2%B0C