Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

APRIL 2018 | Joeri Rogelj, Alexander Popp, Katherine V. Calvin, Gunnar Luderer, Johannes Emmerling, David Gernaat, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jessica Strefler, Tomoko Hasegawa, Giacomo Marangoni, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Jae Edmonds, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Petr Havlík, Florian Humpenöder, Elke Stehfest, Massimo Tavoni
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. This study explores scenarios that can achieve this target by limiting end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m⁻², with a median warming in 2100 below 1.5 °C. Six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model are used under five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some SSPs are more amenable to achieving the 1.9 W m⁻² target, which requires rapid shifts away from fossil fuels, reduced energy use, and carbon dioxide removal. However, this target is challenging under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policies. The scenarios inform policy by highlighting the importance of demand-side mitigation, energy efficiency, and comprehensive emission reductions. The study also discusses the feasibility of these scenarios, noting that while they provide insights, real-world feasibility depends on factors not fully captured by models, such as social support and technological advancements.The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. This study explores scenarios that can achieve this target by limiting end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m⁻², with a median warming in 2100 below 1.5 °C. Six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model are used under five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some SSPs are more amenable to achieving the 1.9 W m⁻² target, which requires rapid shifts away from fossil fuels, reduced energy use, and carbon dioxide removal. However, this target is challenging under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policies. The scenarios inform policy by highlighting the importance of demand-side mitigation, energy efficiency, and comprehensive emission reductions. The study also discusses the feasibility of these scenarios, noting that while they provide insights, real-world feasibility depends on factors not fully captured by models, such as social support and technological advancements.
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