Small states and the dilemma of geopolitics: role change in Finland and Sweden

Small states and the dilemma of geopolitics: role change in Finland and Sweden

2024 | ANNA MICHALSKI, DOUGLAS BROMMESSON AND ANN-MARIE EKENGREN
The article examines the decision of Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership, marking a significant shift from their traditional policies of military non-alignment. This move is driven by concerns over the geopolitical shift and the weakening of the rules-based international order, which poses a dilemma for governing elites in small liberal states like Finland and Sweden. The authors argue that the process of reassessing foreign policy roles is more complex than typically understood, influenced by domestic factors such as elite perceptions, social identity, and institutional constraints. They develop a model to trace the social mechanisms influencing foreign role enactment, from the international to the domestic level, and back again. The model highlights the importance of vertical and horizontal contestation within the elite and the public, which can lead to role contestation or conflict. Finland's decision to join NATO was characterized by elite consensus and strong public support, while Sweden's process was more complex, with parts of the elite and public remaining unconvinced about the necessity of NATO membership. The article concludes by discussing the implications of these decisions for small liberal states and the broader context of geopolitical shifts.The article examines the decision of Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership, marking a significant shift from their traditional policies of military non-alignment. This move is driven by concerns over the geopolitical shift and the weakening of the rules-based international order, which poses a dilemma for governing elites in small liberal states like Finland and Sweden. The authors argue that the process of reassessing foreign policy roles is more complex than typically understood, influenced by domestic factors such as elite perceptions, social identity, and institutional constraints. They develop a model to trace the social mechanisms influencing foreign role enactment, from the international to the domestic level, and back again. The model highlights the importance of vertical and horizontal contestation within the elite and the public, which can lead to role contestation or conflict. Finland's decision to join NATO was characterized by elite consensus and strong public support, while Sweden's process was more complex, with parts of the elite and public remaining unconvinced about the necessity of NATO membership. The article concludes by discussing the implications of these decisions for small liberal states and the broader context of geopolitical shifts.
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