Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement

Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement

January 8, 2024 | Jonas Vestby, Sebastian Schutte, Andreas Fore Tollefsen, and Halvard Buhaug
This study explores the societal determinants of flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000, focusing on socioeconomic, political, and security conditions. Using high-resolution data on flood events from 2000 to 2018, the authors find that extreme displacement levels are more likely in contexts with low national income, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, and prevalence of armed conflict. However, these factors have limited predictive power for new data, highlighting complex causality and critical data limitations. The results suggest that sustainable development efforts, such as poverty eradication and inclusive governance, can reduce disaster risk and human displacement. Despite these insights, accurate prediction remains challenging due to conceptual ambiguity, empirical complexity, and data limitations. The study emphasizes the need for better and more consistent data to support evidence-based decision-making in disaster risk reduction.This study explores the societal determinants of flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000, focusing on socioeconomic, political, and security conditions. Using high-resolution data on flood events from 2000 to 2018, the authors find that extreme displacement levels are more likely in contexts with low national income, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, and prevalence of armed conflict. However, these factors have limited predictive power for new data, highlighting complex causality and critical data limitations. The results suggest that sustainable development efforts, such as poverty eradication and inclusive governance, can reduce disaster risk and human displacement. Despite these insights, accurate prediction remains challenging due to conceptual ambiguity, empirical complexity, and data limitations. The study emphasizes the need for better and more consistent data to support evidence-based decision-making in disaster risk reduction.
Reach us at info@study.space