January 8, 2024 | Jonas Vestby, Sebastian Schutte, Andreas Forå Tollefsen, and Halvard Buhaug
This study examines the societal factors influencing flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. Using regression analysis, it finds that extreme displacement is more likely in low-income, non-democratic, high-economic activity, and conflict-prone areas. However, these factors do not significantly improve prediction accuracy on new data, indicating complex interactions and data limitations. The analysis highlights that flood impacts vary greatly across regions, with the Global South experiencing more displacement than direct exposure suggests. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may help reduce disaster risk, but better data on societal impacts are needed for effective decision-making.
The 2022 Pakistan floods displaced over 33 million people, showing a global trend of increasing flood frequency and severity. Despite this, flood mortality has declined significantly over the past 50 years, indicating progress in flood management. However, displacement numbers are much higher than mortality figures, showing that floods can displace thousands per event. Displacement is influenced by socioeconomic, political, and security contexts, with lower-income, non-democratic, and conflict-prone areas experiencing more displacement. The study uses high-resolution data to analyze these factors, finding that socioeconomic development, inclusive governance, and peace reduce displacement risk.
The study uses a negative binomial regression model to analyze the relationship between flood exposure and displacement, incorporating socioeconomic, political, and security variables. Results show that displacement is inversely related to economic development, with higher nighttime luminosity correlating with higher displacement. Democracies are associated with lower displacement, and conflicts increase displacement. The model's predictions are validated against observed data, showing reasonable accuracy but highlighting the complexity of flood impacts.
The study concludes that while socioeconomic development, inclusive governance, and peace reduce flood-induced displacement, accurate prediction remains challenging due to data limitations and conceptual ambiguities. Future research needs better data on natural hazards, human responses, and local societal contexts to improve flood risk reduction strategies. The findings support the SDGs but emphasize the need for improved data and analysis to enhance disaster risk reduction.This study examines the societal factors influencing flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. Using regression analysis, it finds that extreme displacement is more likely in low-income, non-democratic, high-economic activity, and conflict-prone areas. However, these factors do not significantly improve prediction accuracy on new data, indicating complex interactions and data limitations. The analysis highlights that flood impacts vary greatly across regions, with the Global South experiencing more displacement than direct exposure suggests. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may help reduce disaster risk, but better data on societal impacts are needed for effective decision-making.
The 2022 Pakistan floods displaced over 33 million people, showing a global trend of increasing flood frequency and severity. Despite this, flood mortality has declined significantly over the past 50 years, indicating progress in flood management. However, displacement numbers are much higher than mortality figures, showing that floods can displace thousands per event. Displacement is influenced by socioeconomic, political, and security contexts, with lower-income, non-democratic, and conflict-prone areas experiencing more displacement. The study uses high-resolution data to analyze these factors, finding that socioeconomic development, inclusive governance, and peace reduce displacement risk.
The study uses a negative binomial regression model to analyze the relationship between flood exposure and displacement, incorporating socioeconomic, political, and security variables. Results show that displacement is inversely related to economic development, with higher nighttime luminosity correlating with higher displacement. Democracies are associated with lower displacement, and conflicts increase displacement. The model's predictions are validated against observed data, showing reasonable accuracy but highlighting the complexity of flood impacts.
The study concludes that while socioeconomic development, inclusive governance, and peace reduce flood-induced displacement, accurate prediction remains challenging due to data limitations and conceptual ambiguities. Future research needs better data on natural hazards, human responses, and local societal contexts to improve flood risk reduction strategies. The findings support the SDGs but emphasize the need for improved data and analysis to enhance disaster risk reduction.