This paper presents an integrated ecological-economic modeling framework to assess the impacts of climate change on global agriculture from 1990 to 2080. The study uses the FAO-IIASA agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model and the IIASA world food system (BLS) model, incorporating climate scenarios from five general circulation models (GCMs) and four socio-economic scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The AEZ model simulates changes in land resources, crop production, and potential yields, while the BLS model assesses food demand, production, trade, and prices. Key findings include: 1. **Climate Change Impacts**: - Northward shift of thermal regimes, reducing boreal and arctic ecosystems. - Expansion of tropical zones, particularly in Africa. - Consistent expansion of arid areas in developing countries. - Increase in land with severe climate, soil, or terrain constraints. 2. **Agricultural Resources**: - Global gains in potential agricultural land, especially in North America and the Russian Federation. - Significant losses in northern and southern Africa due to increased heat and water stresses. - Mixed results for developing countries, with some regions experiencing substantial gains in cereal production, while others see substantial decreases. 3. **Sub-Saharan Africa**: - Decrease in constraint-free prime land suitable for crop cultivation. - Increase in land with moisture stress. - Expansion of land with severe climate, soil, or terrain constraints. 4. **Food Insecurity**: - Over 80 poor food-insecure countries are projected to lose 10-20% of their cereal-production potential by 2080. - Large variations in outcomes, with up to 40% of sub-Saharan countries losing significant shares of their agricultural resources. 5. **Socio-Economic Scenarios**: - Four socio-economic scenarios (SRES A1F1, A1B, A2, B1, and B2) are used to assess the impacts of different development paths on global agriculture. - Projected increases in global cereal production, with the highest increases in Africa. - Cultivated land is expected to increase in developing countries, with most additional cropland in Africa and Latin America. The study highlights the complex interactions between climate change, socio-economic factors, and agricultural productivity, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate potential damages.This paper presents an integrated ecological-economic modeling framework to assess the impacts of climate change on global agriculture from 1990 to 2080. The study uses the FAO-IIASA agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model and the IIASA world food system (BLS) model, incorporating climate scenarios from five general circulation models (GCMs) and four socio-economic scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The AEZ model simulates changes in land resources, crop production, and potential yields, while the BLS model assesses food demand, production, trade, and prices. Key findings include: 1. **Climate Change Impacts**: - Northward shift of thermal regimes, reducing boreal and arctic ecosystems. - Expansion of tropical zones, particularly in Africa. - Consistent expansion of arid areas in developing countries. - Increase in land with severe climate, soil, or terrain constraints. 2. **Agricultural Resources**: - Global gains in potential agricultural land, especially in North America and the Russian Federation. - Significant losses in northern and southern Africa due to increased heat and water stresses. - Mixed results for developing countries, with some regions experiencing substantial gains in cereal production, while others see substantial decreases. 3. **Sub-Saharan Africa**: - Decrease in constraint-free prime land suitable for crop cultivation. - Increase in land with moisture stress. - Expansion of land with severe climate, soil, or terrain constraints. 4. **Food Insecurity**: - Over 80 poor food-insecure countries are projected to lose 10-20% of their cereal-production potential by 2080. - Large variations in outcomes, with up to 40% of sub-Saharan countries losing significant shares of their agricultural resources. 5. **Socio-Economic Scenarios**: - Four socio-economic scenarios (SRES A1F1, A1B, A2, B1, and B2) are used to assess the impacts of different development paths on global agriculture. - Projected increases in global cereal production, with the highest increases in Africa. - Cultivated land is expected to increase in developing countries, with most additional cropland in Africa and Latin America. The study highlights the complex interactions between climate change, socio-economic factors, and agricultural productivity, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate potential damages.