This study presents an integrated ecological–economic model to assess the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on global agriculture from 1990 to 2080. The model combines climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning, socio-economic drivers, and global food trade dynamics. It uses the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model (AEZ) with climate data from five general circulation models (GCMs) and socio-economic scenarios from the IPCC. The model evaluates bio-physical impacts on soil and crop growth, potential agricultural land, and crop production. These results are then integrated into an economic analysis to assess food demand, production, trade, and key composite indices like hunger and malnutrition risk. The study finds that climate change will likely deepen production and consumption gaps between developed and developing countries. Developing countries are more vulnerable due to reliance on agriculture, limited adaptation capacity, and exposure to extreme weather events. Climate change is expected to reduce cereal production in many regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where 800 million people are undernourished. Under the SRES A2 scenario, cereal production potential in over 40 countries is projected to decline by more than 5%, with significant losses in sub-Saharan Africa. The model also shows that climate change will shift agricultural land use, with potential gains in North America and the Russian Federation due to warmer conditions, while losses occur in northern and southern Africa. Cereal production potential in developing countries is projected to decrease by 15–45% under some scenarios, with significant impacts on food security. The study highlights the importance of adapting agricultural techniques to mitigate climate change impacts. It also notes that global food trade will play a key role in shaping regional food systems, with international trade affecting food demand, production, and supply. The results suggest that climate change will have significant regional impacts on food production and security, with sub-Saharan Africa being particularly vulnerable. The study underscores the need for integrated approaches to address the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic factors in agriculture.This study presents an integrated ecological–economic model to assess the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on global agriculture from 1990 to 2080. The model combines climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning, socio-economic drivers, and global food trade dynamics. It uses the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model (AEZ) with climate data from five general circulation models (GCMs) and socio-economic scenarios from the IPCC. The model evaluates bio-physical impacts on soil and crop growth, potential agricultural land, and crop production. These results are then integrated into an economic analysis to assess food demand, production, trade, and key composite indices like hunger and malnutrition risk. The study finds that climate change will likely deepen production and consumption gaps between developed and developing countries. Developing countries are more vulnerable due to reliance on agriculture, limited adaptation capacity, and exposure to extreme weather events. Climate change is expected to reduce cereal production in many regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where 800 million people are undernourished. Under the SRES A2 scenario, cereal production potential in over 40 countries is projected to decline by more than 5%, with significant losses in sub-Saharan Africa. The model also shows that climate change will shift agricultural land use, with potential gains in North America and the Russian Federation due to warmer conditions, while losses occur in northern and southern Africa. Cereal production potential in developing countries is projected to decrease by 15–45% under some scenarios, with significant impacts on food security. The study highlights the importance of adapting agricultural techniques to mitigate climate change impacts. It also notes that global food trade will play a key role in shaping regional food systems, with international trade affecting food demand, production, and supply. The results suggest that climate change will have significant regional impacts on food production and security, with sub-Saharan Africa being particularly vulnerable. The study underscores the need for integrated approaches to address the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic factors in agriculture.