February 26, 2024 | Da Zhang, Ziheng Zhu, Shi Chen, Chongyu Zhang, Xi Lu, Xiliang Zhang, Xiaoye Zhang, and Michael R. Davidson
China aims to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060, requiring significant deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. To address the challenges of land use limitations and operational and economic features of power systems, a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization model was developed. The model simulates a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Key findings include:
1. **Wind and Solar Expansion**: Wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions from 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today.
2. **Land Use**: Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind will be constructed within 100 km of major load centers, reflecting current policies on land use.
3. **Energy Storage and Transmission**: Terawatt-level energy storage should be deployed from scratch, and ultra-high voltage inter-provincial transmission should double/triple its current size to ensure sufficient power supply.
4. **Policy Implications**: Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals, especially under more restrictive RE siting policies, where at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand.
The study highlights the need for balancing key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs, and emphasizes the importance of flexible transmission plans and market reforms to support the transition to a carbon-negative power system.China aims to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060, requiring significant deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. To address the challenges of land use limitations and operational and economic features of power systems, a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization model was developed. The model simulates a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Key findings include:
1. **Wind and Solar Expansion**: Wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions from 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today.
2. **Land Use**: Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind will be constructed within 100 km of major load centers, reflecting current policies on land use.
3. **Energy Storage and Transmission**: Terawatt-level energy storage should be deployed from scratch, and ultra-high voltage inter-provincial transmission should double/triple its current size to ensure sufficient power supply.
4. **Policy Implications**: Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals, especially under more restrictive RE siting policies, where at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand.
The study highlights the need for balancing key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs, and emphasizes the importance of flexible transmission plans and market reforms to support the transition to a carbon-negative power system.