Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

2024 | Da Zhang, Ziheng Zhu, Shi Chen, Chongyu Zhang, Xi Lu, Xiliang Zhang, Xiaoye Zhang, and Michael R. Davidson
This study presents a spatially resolved model of China's renewable energy and power system planning to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The model shows that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with a plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China's climate goals. The model reveals that wind and solar must be deployed at terawatt-scale, with 2.0 TW of wind and 3.9 TW of solar installed by 2060, contributing to 65% of total annual generation. Wind installations are deployed throughout the country, including expanding from centers of existing deployment, which reflects the higher quality and lower costs for transmission connection and evacuation nearby already exploited resources. New, large wind power concentrations are found in Central and East China closer to demand centers, in line with previous research that showed the cost-effectiveness of wind deployment even in these lower quality areas in order to reduce transmission congestion. Offshore wind is deployed at 416 GW, showing that it can play a role in certain coastal regions to meet low-carbon goals as has been identified elsewhere. Solar deployment of 3.9 TW exhausts much of the suitable land for developing VRE in eastern provinces where electricity demand is high and agricultural area takes up a large fraction. For example, solar installations occupy more than 80% of suitable land in Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. Some new concentrations of solar capacity are also found in provinces that have few load centers but are less land-constrained, e.g., Xinjiang, Gansu, and West Inner Mongolia. Although previous research showed a huge physical potential for solar, up to 141 TW, mostly in Northwest and West Inner Mongolia, based on land and irradiance, our analysis finds that North, Central, and East China, which host most load centers, can accommodate the majority of solar even at slightly reduced irradiance. Distributed solar, which is assumed to have higher investment costs but no transmission connection costs, is deployed at 632 GW when accounting for remote-sensed estimates of suitable urban and built-up areas for deployment. We consider two types of intra-provincial transmission lines connecting VRE cellsThis study presents a spatially resolved model of China's renewable energy and power system planning to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The model shows that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with a plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China's climate goals. The model reveals that wind and solar must be deployed at terawatt-scale, with 2.0 TW of wind and 3.9 TW of solar installed by 2060, contributing to 65% of total annual generation. Wind installations are deployed throughout the country, including expanding from centers of existing deployment, which reflects the higher quality and lower costs for transmission connection and evacuation nearby already exploited resources. New, large wind power concentrations are found in Central and East China closer to demand centers, in line with previous research that showed the cost-effectiveness of wind deployment even in these lower quality areas in order to reduce transmission congestion. Offshore wind is deployed at 416 GW, showing that it can play a role in certain coastal regions to meet low-carbon goals as has been identified elsewhere. Solar deployment of 3.9 TW exhausts much of the suitable land for developing VRE in eastern provinces where electricity demand is high and agricultural area takes up a large fraction. For example, solar installations occupy more than 80% of suitable land in Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. Some new concentrations of solar capacity are also found in provinces that have few load centers but are less land-constrained, e.g., Xinjiang, Gansu, and West Inner Mongolia. Although previous research showed a huge physical potential for solar, up to 141 TW, mostly in Northwest and West Inner Mongolia, based on land and irradiance, our analysis finds that North, Central, and East China, which host most load centers, can accommodate the majority of solar even at slightly reduced irradiance. Distributed solar, which is assumed to have higher investment costs but no transmission connection costs, is deployed at 632 GW when accounting for remote-sensed estimates of suitable urban and built-up areas for deployment. We consider two types of intra-provincial transmission lines connecting VRE cells
Reach us at info@futurestudyspace.com
[slides] Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China | StudySpace