Vol 437/8 September 2005 | Neil M. Ferguson, Derek A.T. Cummings, Simon Cauchemez, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Aronrag Meeyai, Sopon lamsirithaworn, Donald S. Burke
The article discusses strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, focusing on the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus. The authors use a simulation model to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs and social distancing measures as containment strategies. They find that a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing can eliminate a nascent pandemic if the basic reproduction number (R0) of the new virus is below 1.8. The study predicts that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. The effectiveness of these policies depends on the speed of case diagnosis and drug distribution. The authors also examine the impact of social distancing measures such as school and workplace closures, and area quarantine, which can significantly enhance the effectiveness of containment strategies. They conclude that a feasible strategy for containing the next influenza pandemic is possible but requires rapid identification of the origin, sensitive case detection, and effective delivery of antiviral drugs to a high proportion of the population.The article discusses strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, focusing on the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus. The authors use a simulation model to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs and social distancing measures as containment strategies. They find that a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing can eliminate a nascent pandemic if the basic reproduction number (R0) of the new virus is below 1.8. The study predicts that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. The effectiveness of these policies depends on the speed of case diagnosis and drug distribution. The authors also examine the impact of social distancing measures such as school and workplace closures, and area quarantine, which can significantly enhance the effectiveness of containment strategies. They conclude that a feasible strategy for containing the next influenza pandemic is possible but requires rapid identification of the origin, sensitive case detection, and effective delivery of antiviral drugs to a high proportion of the population.