Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

| Mark C. Urban
The article by Mark C. Urban provides a comprehensive synthesis of published studies to estimate the global mean extinction rate due to climate change and identify the factors contributing the most uncertainty. The analysis, based on a meta-analysis of 131 studies, suggests that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, potentially threatening up to 1 in 6 species under current policies. The highest extinction risks are found in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, while North America and Europe have the lowest risks. The level of future climate change is the most significant factor influencing extinction risk, with a 46% increase in extinction risk for a 2°C rise and a 61% increase for a 3°C rise. The article also highlights the importance of realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity, which can significantly increase extinction risks. The findings emphasize the urgent need to adopt strategies to limit further climate change to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.The article by Mark C. Urban provides a comprehensive synthesis of published studies to estimate the global mean extinction rate due to climate change and identify the factors contributing the most uncertainty. The analysis, based on a meta-analysis of 131 studies, suggests that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, potentially threatening up to 1 in 6 species under current policies. The highest extinction risks are found in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, while North America and Europe have the lowest risks. The level of future climate change is the most significant factor influencing extinction risk, with a 46% increase in extinction risk for a 2°C rise and a 61% increase for a 3°C rise. The article also highlights the importance of realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity, which can significantly increase extinction risks. The findings emphasize the urgent need to adopt strategies to limit further climate change to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.
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