27 March 2024 | Chunchang Zhang, Jia Zhu, Huiru Guo, Shuye Xue, Xian Wang, Zhihuan Wang, Taishan Chen, Liu Yang, Xiangming Zeng, Penghao Su
The 2023 IMO Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (2023 IMO GHG Strategy) sets ambitious targets to reduce harmful emissions from international shipping. This study aims to interpret the technical requirements of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and provide a pathway for achieving decarbonization goals. The study uses IMO GHG emission scenarios and model calculations to assess the decarbonization potential of short-term measures and alternative fuels. Key findings include:
1. **Decarbonization Goals**: The decarbonization goals for emission intensity are 51.5–62.5% in the IMO GHG reduction scenarios, significantly higher than the IMO-recommended value of 40%.
2. **Short-Term Measures**: Combined with the continuous application of short-term measures, onshore power, and regulations, these measures must contribute their maximum potential by 2030.
3. **Alternative Fuels**: Significant penetration (15.0–26.0%) of alternative fuels is required by 2030 to achieve the decarbonization goals in the 90% and 130% scenarios, respectively. This is far beyond the expected value in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy (i.e., 5–10%).
4. **E-Fuels**: High proportions of e-fuels (e-methanol and e-ammonia) are required, especially after 2035, reaching up to 95% by 2050.
5. **Sustainable Fuels**: Sustainable biodiesel and LNG are necessary choices for decarbonization, while the role of hydrogen may be limited to precursor fuels for e-fuels.
6. **Model Uncertainty**: The study uses IMO DCS data to reduce model uncertainties and gain reliable practical efficiencies of newly adopted regulations.
7. **Policy Implications**: The findings highlight the intense technical requirements behind the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and provide a pathway for a fair and impartial transition to zero GHG emissions in the shipping sector.
The study emphasizes the need for appropriate actions and economic measures to support the implementation of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, as decarbonization will occur at a higher cost compared to the social average.The 2023 IMO Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (2023 IMO GHG Strategy) sets ambitious targets to reduce harmful emissions from international shipping. This study aims to interpret the technical requirements of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and provide a pathway for achieving decarbonization goals. The study uses IMO GHG emission scenarios and model calculations to assess the decarbonization potential of short-term measures and alternative fuels. Key findings include:
1. **Decarbonization Goals**: The decarbonization goals for emission intensity are 51.5–62.5% in the IMO GHG reduction scenarios, significantly higher than the IMO-recommended value of 40%.
2. **Short-Term Measures**: Combined with the continuous application of short-term measures, onshore power, and regulations, these measures must contribute their maximum potential by 2030.
3. **Alternative Fuels**: Significant penetration (15.0–26.0%) of alternative fuels is required by 2030 to achieve the decarbonization goals in the 90% and 130% scenarios, respectively. This is far beyond the expected value in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy (i.e., 5–10%).
4. **E-Fuels**: High proportions of e-fuels (e-methanol and e-ammonia) are required, especially after 2035, reaching up to 95% by 2050.
5. **Sustainable Fuels**: Sustainable biodiesel and LNG are necessary choices for decarbonization, while the role of hydrogen may be limited to precursor fuels for e-fuels.
6. **Model Uncertainty**: The study uses IMO DCS data to reduce model uncertainties and gain reliable practical efficiencies of newly adopted regulations.
7. **Policy Implications**: The findings highlight the intense technical requirements behind the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and provide a pathway for a fair and impartial transition to zero GHG emissions in the shipping sector.
The study emphasizes the need for appropriate actions and economic measures to support the implementation of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, as decarbonization will occur at a higher cost compared to the social average.