Technical Requirements for 2023 IMO GHG Strategy

Technical Requirements for 2023 IMO GHG Strategy

27 March 2024 | Chunchang Zhang, Jia Zhu, Huiru Guo, Shuye Xue, Xian Wang, Zhihuan Wang, Taishan Chen, Liu Yang, Xiangming Zeng and Penghao Su
The 2023 IMO GHG Strategy aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping by 2050, with enhanced targets compared to the 2018 strategy. This study provides an interpretation of the strategy's targets and reveals the technical requirements for achieving them. The decarbonization goals for emission intensity are estimated to be 51.5–62.5% in the IMO GHG reduction scenarios, significantly higher than the 40% recommended value. Short-term measures, including onshore power and regulations, must contribute their maximum potential by 2030. Alternative fuels will need to reach 15.0–26.0% penetration by 2030 to meet the 90% and 130% scenarios, far exceeding the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy's expected value of 5–10%. By 2050, alternative fuels must achieve ~95% penetration. Sustainable biodiesel and LNG are necessary choices, while e-methanol and e-ammonia will play significant roles in the long term. The study highlights the intense technical requirements behind the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and provides a pathway for a fair and impartial transition to zero GHG emissions in the shipping sector. The findings emphasize the need for appropriate actions to meet the strategy's goals. The study also addresses the importance of avoiding overestimation of individual measures and their integral decarbonization potentials, as well as the need for economic measures to offset decarbonization costs. The model used in the study incorporates data from the IMO Data Collection System (DCS) and considers the LCA of alternative fuels. The results show that the decarbonization potential of short-term measures is significant, but the long-term reliance on alternative fuels is necessary to achieve the strategy's goals. The study also highlights the importance of considering the global fleet's reliance on conventional fuels and the need for sustainable fuel alternatives. The findings suggest that the shipping sector will face higher costs for decarbonization compared to the social average, necessitating economic measures to support the strategy. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the technical requirements for achieving the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and highlights the importance of appropriate actions to meet the strategy's goals.The 2023 IMO GHG Strategy aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping by 2050, with enhanced targets compared to the 2018 strategy. This study provides an interpretation of the strategy's targets and reveals the technical requirements for achieving them. The decarbonization goals for emission intensity are estimated to be 51.5–62.5% in the IMO GHG reduction scenarios, significantly higher than the 40% recommended value. Short-term measures, including onshore power and regulations, must contribute their maximum potential by 2030. Alternative fuels will need to reach 15.0–26.0% penetration by 2030 to meet the 90% and 130% scenarios, far exceeding the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy's expected value of 5–10%. By 2050, alternative fuels must achieve ~95% penetration. Sustainable biodiesel and LNG are necessary choices, while e-methanol and e-ammonia will play significant roles in the long term. The study highlights the intense technical requirements behind the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and provides a pathway for a fair and impartial transition to zero GHG emissions in the shipping sector. The findings emphasize the need for appropriate actions to meet the strategy's goals. The study also addresses the importance of avoiding overestimation of individual measures and their integral decarbonization potentials, as well as the need for economic measures to offset decarbonization costs. The model used in the study incorporates data from the IMO Data Collection System (DCS) and considers the LCA of alternative fuels. The results show that the decarbonization potential of short-term measures is significant, but the long-term reliance on alternative fuels is necessary to achieve the strategy's goals. The study also highlights the importance of considering the global fleet's reliance on conventional fuels and the need for sustainable fuel alternatives. The findings suggest that the shipping sector will face higher costs for decarbonization compared to the social average, necessitating economic measures to support the strategy. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the technical requirements for achieving the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and highlights the importance of appropriate actions to meet the strategy's goals.
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Understanding Technical Requirements for 2023 IMO GHG Strategy